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Links » Crème » The Sinocism China Newsletter For 09.18.12
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The Sinocism China Newsletter For 09.18.12
The anti-Japan protests continue in China but there appears to have been little to no violence Monday. Police in Guangzhou arrested 11 people for vandalizing cars and shops in protests over the weekend and we should expect more arrests in the coming days. 1,000 Chinese fishing boats are heading for the islands and today is the 81st anniversary of the Mukden Incident, but given official media's continuing calls for no more violence we should expect today's activities to be relatively calm.
Some Japanese firms are closed for the anniversary and as Bloomberg notes in China-Japan dispute over islands risks $340 billion trade there is a lot of economic activity at stake. China's markets were down 2% or so Monday but Japan's Nikkei, which was closed Monday, opened up today. The disgraceful behavior of some of the Chinese protestors was embarrassing to many Chinese, as Ministry of Tofu shows in On Weibo, Japanophobic mobsters are far from the majority | Ministry of Tofu 豆腐部) and Han Han discusses in Han Han to Japanese Car Vandals: You Are Not Patriots. But is China's vitriolic reaction without any basis? Why did Japan pick this moment, when China is in the middle of a leadership succession and the always sensitive Mukden Incident anniversary was looming, to take the provocative step of nationalizing the islands? As the Guardian writes in the editorial Japan and China: ghosts of the past: Tuesday is the anniversary of the Japanese attack on China in 1931 that led to the invasion and occupation lasting 14 years. That Japan should use this date above all others to reassert its sovereignty over a group of uninhabited islands is – in Chinese eyes – nothing short of provocation. Linus Hagström of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs argues in China–Japan tensions over Senkaku purchase an orchestrated affair that: Current Sino–Japanese tensions with regard to the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands could thus be seen as a result of Ishihara orchestrating the idea to buy the islands. The dominant narrative that Japan was 'weak' and 'lost' in 2010 clearly facilitated this, because more assertive and proactive Japanese countermeasures seemed to be the logical and most sensible response. The current Japanese government will probably maintain its cautious policy. Still, the consensus on Japan's 'weakness' and Chinese 'aggressiveness' is likely to bring about tougher Japanese measures in the short to medium term — especially if the next general election (believed to take place soon) produces a new government formed by parties and politicians who have profited from criticising the DPJ government's 'weakness'. This tendency is stirred by Ishihara, who has stated he will publicly ask the candidates in the coming election for LDP president how they would develop the islands if they were elected and become prime minister. Hagström goes on to write that the 2010 Senkaku/Diauyu Islands incident: …was instrumental for Tokyo in eliciting more explicit US reassurances in regard to the islands in the fall of 2010; enhancing the Japanese people's 'realisation' of 'the necessity' to maintain US bases on Okinawa; and launching important changes to Japanese security policy in the revised National Defence Program Guidelines in December 2010. Which brings us back to a quote in the Washington Post attributed to a senior US military official: "I'm pretty frank with people: I don't think that we'd allow the U.S. to get dragged into a conflict over fish, or over a rock," said a senior U.S. military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss deliberations within the Obama administration. "Having allies that we have defense treaties with, not allowing them to drag us into a situation over a rock dispute, is something I think we're pretty all well-aligned on." Yesterday I wrote that this statement might embolden China and that neither Japan or China views these disputed islands as just rocks. In fact, this statement, on such a sensitive issue, is not likely to be a slip of the tongue. Could it be seen as a subtle warning to the Japanese to get back to the status quo and stop rocking the rocks, so to speak? China certainly thinks that Japan believes it can act "recklessly" on this issue because Uncle Sam will protect it, and the last thing America wants is to be dragged into more disputes or even conflict with China, especially when the US is in the midst of a massive naval buildup in the Middle East as tensions with Iran continue to increase. But this problem is far from a resolution and "Zhong Sheng" reminds everyone in today's People's Daily that China has the power and the confidence to defend the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands 中国有实力有信心捍卫钓鱼岛主权. Can China and Japan return to status quo on the disputed islands, or have things changed fundamentally? Sinocism has lots of very smart readers and I would love to hear what you think, on this issue or anything else. In what is probably good news, Secretary of Defense Panetta is extending his China trip to meet Xi Jinping and visit the naval fleet at the Qingdao Port. Perhaps Xi is making up for missing his meeting with Secretary of Sate Clinton earlier this month, and while any increased military-miltary exchange should be seen as a positive, China may also want the US to see what it might deploy to the disputed islands in the very unlikely event there is a military clash (helpfully hypothesized last month by Foreign Policy in The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012). Bo Xilai sidekick and disgraced police official Wang Lijun has gone on trial in Chengdu. Yesterday's session was secret, today's is supposed to be public. He is the last major character (Xu Ming is not "major) in the Bo case to try before Beijing gets to Bo's verdict. We should expect to hear more about the handling of Bo Xilai's case at the close of the imminent final Plenum of the 17th Party Congress. The Wall Street Journal's Jeremy Page has a fascinating look at Wang's flight to the US consulate in as scandal shook China, quiet spy game unraveled. Yesterday I wrote: Speaking of budget woes, would you believe that America has a greater wealth gap than China does? Last week Bloomberg noted that the 2011 US Gini Coefficent was 0.463. An official Chinese report just released states that China's Gini Coefficient for 2010 was 0.438, as the People's Daily notes in New Gini figures show instability risks, need for reform.
Today the Wall Street Journal's Tom Orlick questions China's Gini data in China's Inequality Gini Out of the Bottle.
Police chief's dash for freedom triggered a landslide-Garnaut - He drove for seven hours on the provincial back roads to Chengdu, rather than the dual carriage freeway, which would have taken half that time, to avoid being spotted…Halfway into the journey he arranged a call to the British consulate in Chongqing, requesting a meeting to discuss his new portfolio, as a decoy to put Bo's henchmen off his trail.On to today's links: BUSINESS AND ECONOMY Profits continue to decline at China's SOEs – Xinhua | English.news.cn - Profits at China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have continued a downward trend, declining 12.8 percent year on year to 1.38 trillion yuan (219 billion U.S.dollars) in the first eight months of 2012, the Ministry of Finance said Monday. However the SOEs' combined profits witnessed a rebound on a monthly basis, rising 1.1 percent in August from the July level. This compared with a 11.6 percent drop in July, according to the ministry. China Needs Planned Infrastructure Projects, NDRC Says – Bloomberg - Xu Lin, head of the planning department at the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters in Beijing newly approved projects, including subways in 18 Chinese cities and roads, were only a part of a pipeline of infrastructure projects being developed in the nation. "In an economic slowdown, the government has to take some counter-cyclical measures — it's absolutely normal, and it's part of macro-economic control," Xu told reporters at an academic forum in the Peking University yesterday. "China still has large demand for infrastructure projects." Wu Jinglian: Local Governments' CNY17Trl Investment Unsustainable-Caijing - Wu Jinglian, a leading mainland economist, warned Sunday that a string of stimulus moves taken recently by local governments to combat a slowing economy would risk posing long-term threats to the economy despite a potential boost in short terms. "Local government's investments plans to prop up growth, which totaled as much as 17 trillion, according to incomplete statistics, are unsustainable with apparent exposure of problems," the renowned economist said in a keynote speech at a finance forum. Beware China's quantitative tightening – MarketWatch - If China's period of surpluses is over, it means the PBOC is no longer going to be creating yuan like before. In fact, the reverse will be true if the yuan weakens, where the central bank will effectively have to buy its own currency by selling foreign reserves to maintain its peg. Debunking the "It's China's Fault That American Worker Real Wages are Falling" Myth « naked capitalism - What's driving falling real wages is poor domestic economic policies, namely, the mismanagement of the post crisis period. Japan warned the US early on that the biggest mistake it had made was not forcing its banks to recognize losses. But we ignored their lesson and are in the process of suffering what may turn out to be a lost decade. Time to blame the real perps, our bank enablers, rather than the poster bad guy, the Chinese wage slave. Once Again in the Spotlight – Caixin Online - Qiu Xiaohua, the former director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is back in the spotlight again with the news that he became chief economist of Minsheng Securities in late August. It has been nearly six years since Qiu was removed as NBS director. He was expelled from the Communist Party and public posts over alleged involvement in the Shanghai social security scandal and bigamy charges. He was convicted of bigamy and spent a year in jail. Special Report: China's car makers cut corners to success | Reuters - Reuters hired away the Wall Street Journal Beijing's bureau excellent auto correspondent// Paring back on crash tests, skimping on frills, simplifying designs, using cheaper materials and, in a departure for the industry, outsourcing most of their design and engineering are having a profound effect on the cost bases of China's dozens of car makers. Some are now able to sell cheap and cheerful small cars for about 40,000 yuan ($6,350) – less than half the price of a plain vanilla Toyota. CHINASCOPE – Blue Book on the Priority of China's Reforms - According to the "Blue Book on China's Social Management," which the International Institute for Urban Development released last Friday, the priority of China's reform should be to develop five elements that are missing in Chinese society. Investors Tiptoe Back Into China – MarketBeat – WSJ - Dutch asset manager Robeco Group, which has $20 billion of assets under management in Asia, recently moved to a slight overweight stance towards China, signifying the fund owns more than similar global benchmarks. Robeco holds construction stocks because they say they will benefit from government stimulus efforts, which include building social housing. Even for funds focusing on China, the low valuations are prompting more buying. China to Expand Insurance So Sick Don't 'Lose Everything' – Bloomberg - HuCare？ XiCare?// ？China will expand national health coverage by roping in private insurers and include more major diseases, as it seeks to close the mortality gap between rural and urban residents while trying to contain costs. 《金融业发展和改革"十二五"规划》发布-中国金融新闻网 - sigificant financial reforms plan released 自行发债利率逐步回归正常 浙87亿地方债周五登场_理财频道_一财网 - 浙江省财政厅日前宣布，定于9月21日招标发行"2012年第一期、第二期浙江省政府债券"。 Standard Chartered Bank – Research – China – A sneak peek at 2013 - • We revise our 2012 and 2013 forecasts; we now look for 7.8% growth in 2013, and a better H2 than H1 • We believe the interest rate cutting cycle has ended and expect the next move to be up, in late 2013 • The CNY should remain stable against the USD in 2012, but appreciate mildly as the trade surplus revives in 2013-14; we forecast USD-CNY at 6.19 at end-2013, 6.00 at end-2014 POLITICS AND LAW Xi's Reappearance Shows Risks in China Leadership Change – Bloomberg - uh, it will not be a reserve currency in three years, for this and many other reasons// "Flash forward three or 20 years, when China's renminbi is internationalized and used as a reserve currency," said Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "What would happen to its value if the leader disappears like this? China needs a succession that is publicly understandable and that keeps people with interests — economic, social, security — informed as to who the present decision maker is." Reform: Are Its Chances Improving? – China Media Project - did not know the author took the Premier at such face value// Is there hope for political reform in China? This is of course a complex question. But the watchwords used in the political report to the 18th National Congress may give us some clue to related trends within the Party leadership. Will the phrase "political reform" appear more frequently, or more prominently, than it did in 2007? And will "Wen-style utterances" like "judicial independence" make their way into the Party agenda? Zhang Gaoli: a man of means｜Politics｜People｜WantChinaTimes.com - Zhang Gaoli, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and secretary of the CPC Tianjin Municipal Committee, is expected to enter the Central Politburo Standing Committee in the 18th National Congress. 奢侈穿戴频致贪官落马 纪委组织学奢侈品知识_新闻_腾讯网 - in the wake of recent scandals anti-corruption units are trying to increase their knowledge of luxury goods Obama tells Romney to 'walk the walk' on China | Reuters- "He made money investing in companies that uprooted from here and went to China … Now you can't stand up to China when all you've done is sent them our jobs," Obama told a crowd of some 4,500. "You can talk a good game, but I like to walk the walk, not just talk the talk," Obama said to cheers from the crowd. Romney's ad on manufacturing and 'China's cheating' – The Washington Post - U.S. to Launch Ill-timed WTO Dispute Against China | China Hearsay - I am not so naive as to think that all trade enforcement actions are somehow insulated from politics and political influence. Far from it. Given that endemic problem, though, shouldn't governments at least make an attempt to depoliticize the process? Announcing a new case and campaigning on it in an affected swing state during an election, that's not only politicizing international trade, that's ripping away whatever facade was in place and announcing to the world that politics trumps principles. That's a damn shame. FOREIGN AND DEFENSE AFFAIRS Can Panetta Manage China? | Defense News | defensenews.com - Mark Redden and Phillip Saunders have outlined in a 30-page report, "Managing Sino-U.S. Air and Naval Interactions," ways to understand Chinese behavior and avoid incidents at sea and in the air. U.S. and Japan Agree on Missile Defense System – NYTimes.com - nice timing// The United States and Japan announced a major agreement Monday to deploy a second, advanced missile-defense radar on Japanese territory – an effort specifically designed to counter the North Korean threat but likely to anger China. Giant panda Mei Xiang gives birth to cub – and avoids return to China | World news | guardian.co.uk - National zoo in Washington admits had Mei not given birth to 4oz cub she may been exchanged for a more fertile female Senior US Admin Offl: Not Seeking Trade War With China | MNI - at least both sides are working through WTO// The United States is not seeking a trade war with China, despite filing another case in the World Trade Organization over subsidies Washington says violate trade rules, nor was the announcement timed to help President Barack Obama's reelection campaign, a senior administration official said Monday. People's Daily implies economic measures against Japan – Xinhua | English.news.cn - The People's Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party of China, warned in a commentary Monday that Japan's provocations over China's Diaoyu Islands will cause self-destruction for itself through possible economic punishments. Chinese fishery department to provide fishing services off Diaoyu Islands – Xinhua | English.news.cn - The Chinese fishery administration department will manage and provide services for fishing in waters near the Diaoyu Islands. PLA units hone their battle skills |Politics |chinadaily.com.cn - The Nanjing Military Command Area held a live-ammunition drill landing combat troops. Three landing ships carrying armored forces landed near the shore, releasing dozens of amphibian tanks, China Central Television reported. China and Vietnam should continuously expand relations: official – Xinhua | English.news.cn - State Councilor Dai Bingguo said Monday that China and Vietnam should expand bilateral relations by firmly sticking to the "right direction" regarding their ties. Why is China afraid of the Louisiana Purchase? | FP Passport - Why are authorities worried about Chinese netizens reading about Seward's icebox and and the Gadsden Purchase? Is there a fear that these purchases are somehow a precedent for the Japanese government's purchase of three of the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands? Why are the Neocons Still Around? | The National Interest Blog - In some other political system, anyone who had been involved in an official capacity in promoting that war might, after resigning in disgrace, retire from public affairs to tend a garden, write fiction, or make money in private business. But somehow that has not happened with many of the people concerned in this instance. Task force targets Chinese shipments of meth chemicals – News – Stripes - About 80 percent of the meth in the United States is now made in Mexico mainly using Chinese ingredients shipped across the Pacific, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. TECH AND MEDIA Unanswered Questions About Google's Strange Fight With Alibaba in China | PandoDaily - I discussed in some detail Sunday.// We don't have enough information to call this one either way just yet, but the whole affair can be boiled down to two possible scenarios. 1. Alibaba is lying to Google and the public and did rely on Android to build Aliyun. In that case, it is not only misleading us all, but it also trying to have its cake and eat it – that is, it is pretending to be independent of Android while also offering all the benefits of Android, including an app marketplace stuffed with pirated apps. Or: 2. Provoked by Ming's assertion that Alibaba wants Aliyun to be the "Android of China," Google rashly pressured Acer to withdraw the A800 based on its suspicious that Aliyun was a mere Android rip-off. Even though Rubin wasn't fully armed with specific facts that proved Alibaba's alleged violation, he then had to dig in to justify Google's hardline action, especially as some commentators suggested it could be anti-competitive behavior. Chinese Search Giant Baidu Hits Japan – Business Insider - Baidu, the China-owned search giant, has apparently decided to capitalize on anti-Japanese nationalism currently in the air in China. The current "doodle" on the site shows an island with a prominent Chinese flag on it. Baidu's 'paid post deletion' scandal highlights industry problems｜WantChinaTimes.com - Several people who allegedly carried out the illegal act of deleting online posts, working with or for Chinese search giant Baidu, were arrested recently, pointing to problems created by the heated competition among internet companies in China, an industry insider told the First Financial Daily. Han Han wins piracy lawsuit against Baidu — Shanghai Daily | 上海日报 — English Window to China New - Baidu, the country's biggest search engine, was ordered to pay more than 80,000 yuan to Han Han, one of China's bestselling author, for publishing three of his books and offering downloads without his permission, a Beijing court ruled today. SOCIETY AND CULTURE What Microblogs Aren't Telling You About China | ChinaFile Beta - There is no question that the emergence of Weibo platforms and the Internet more generally has amplified the voices of the laobaixing—the ordinary people. But in order to know what the Chinese people are really talking about, it is not enough to just follow the viral videos and microblogs on Weibo. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT China-built projects in US stir up environmental concerns-China Dialogue - California's new Bay Bridge is one of several major infrastructure projects across the US in which Chinese contractors play a key role. What are the environmental consequences? Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years | Environment | guardian.co.uk - One of the world's leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. In what he calls a "global disaster" now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for "urgent" consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures. |
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Posted: 17 Sep 2012 01:54 PM PDT
 Via John Kennedy Apologies for the delay. Along with no free water, Air Asia also does not offer Wi-Fi on its international flights. But here, on the anniversary of the Mukden Incident, is a special Diaoyu Islands links edition. UPDATE1: 1,000 Chinese boats to arrive in waters near Senkakus: report bit.ly/PrhVcWThe other, very important side to this: not all Chinese are irrational. "It's always wrong and dangerous to generalize or stereotype a race. This cannot be any truer in a country as vast and complex as China where contradictions and conflicts abound. When I first the horrific scenes, I was so ashamed of my own race, seeming so barbaric and outrageous through the lens, that at one point, I felt that such a lawless nation will never have any hope of becoming a peace-loving superpower that is deserving of respect, and that there is no point of staying in a country that can come to Armageddon so easily. // But after reading posts that have flooded Sina Weibo, vehemently condemning such violence, I realize that while the rabble and the crimes they've committed in the name of love for China have irreversibly smeared the image of Chinese people, there are much more people who have utter contempt for them." [Jing Gao, Ministry of Tofu] State-sponsored? "The evidence that China is turning a blind eye to these protests is overwhelming. The absence of China's police forces is glaringly obvious, especially in contrast to the vast numbers that turn up and start jumping in front of lenses and smashing cameras whenever a protest China's government doesn't like is scheduled to take place. China has clearly shown it is more than capable of keeping anti-Japan protests under control if it wants to. The obvious conclusion now — the only conclusion now — is that it doesn't want to." [China Geeks] Corollary: A most interesting theory, from the above link: "A Chinese friend emailed me a theory that I find very interesting. Make of it what you will: The whole anti-Japanese thing is definitely state-owned, no doubt.Good to know the police are being helpful in some places. "The first thing that struck me about the anti-Japanese protests in Beijing on Sunday was how helpful the authorities were, to me and everyone else who went. // Being the goose that i am, i went to the wrong embassy — the old one on Ritan St that's awaiting demolition. I wasn't alone, however, for a handful of locals had also made the same mistake. The policemen on duty very obligingly told us where to go, and the options for getting there, and even let us listen in on their radio for the latest update, which was that about 350 people were over there protesting." [South Sea Conversations] Who's a good boy, Global Times? Yes, you're a good boy, Global Times. "Violent protests plague many countries, especially developing economies. Anti-US protests are currently marring the Arab world. China has been making progress in staging orderly protests in recent years. Street protests have not necessarily been disorderly on every occasion. In major hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, protests are often carried out in a more civilized way. Meanwhile, voices against violent protests are on the rise. This time is no different. Violence cannot be tolerated simply because the protests are aimed at Japan." [Global Times] Free eggs, you say? "Cartons of 'free rage eggs' were given to protesters to throw at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing." [NPR] Rioting in Changsha. "The Pinghe Tang building is Japanese owned (that is why the people chose that spot to gather), but the business inside are all Chinese owned and staffed. The cars in the video being destroyed are Chinese owned. It is terrifying to see the Chinese turning on their own people. They are so blinded by hatred and ignorance they don't even see that they are only hurting themselves and each other." [Two Americans in China] And in Liuzhou… "Not wishing to be outdone by a bunch of Beijingers or Shanghainese, about 200 Liuzhou sheep students took to the streets this morning (16th September 2012) to protest about Japan's "purchase" of the Diaoyu Islands (钓鱼岛) and to call for a boycott of Japanese goods (while photographing each other with their Japanese cameras). The officially sanctioned demonstration appeared to be led by a teacher, and I'm in no doubt that many of the students were ordered to spontaneously demonstrate." [Liuzhou Laowai] And Shanghai. "Entry to the Japanese consulate-general was completely cordoned off, and we thought we had missed the protest. People working in the neighbourhood told us that busloads of protestors had been dropped off here at regular intervals. They were right. In just a few minutes, the next batch of demonstrators would arrive…" [Shanghaiist] So you hate Japanese products so much, huh? Let's see how you do without them. "Some major Japanese brand name firms announced factory shutdowns in China on Monday and urged expatriates to stay indoors ahead of what could be more angry protests over a territorial dispute between Asia's two biggest economies. // China's worst outbreak of anti-Japan sentiment in decades led to weekend demonstrations and violent attacks on well-known Japanese businesses such as car makers Toyota and Honda, forcing frightened Japanese into hiding and prompting Chinese state media to warn that trade relations could now be in jeopardy." [Reuters] Han Han weighs in. "His latest Chinese-language post, entitled 'Chess pieces that jump off the board,' (跳出棋盘的棋子) has already garnered over 126,000 retweets and over 25,000 comments. The chess metaphor loses much in translation, but Han's post makes a number of interesting points, among them: // Buying a Japanese car does not equate to a lack of patriotism…" [Tea Leaf Nation] The US Embassy's statement for its citizens: "In light of news of ongoing and likely further protests in China related to a territorial dispute in the East China Sea between China and Japan, the United States Embassy and Consulates General in China remind U.S. citizens that even gatherings intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence. U.S. citizens are therefore urged to avoid areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution when in the vicinity of any demonstrations. U.S. citizens should stay abreast of media coverage of local events and be aware of their surroundings at all times." [Embassy of the US - Beijing] Totally unrelated to Diaoyu Islands interlude: Finally… "Grandpa Mao once said 'Fuck Japan.'" [Offbeat China] One Japanese mother in Shanghai's take on all this. [Isidor's Fugue] Rules for demonstrating. [China Digital Times (also see: pictures)] Perhaps it should include a "no kids" requirement? [MIC Gadget] If you haven't read it yet, Eric Fish's account of the protests outside the Japanese embassy on Saturday now has a video appended. [Sinostand] Finally, finally…  Laowai Comics Okay, one more:  |
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