Blogs » Politics » 18th Party Congress Timing Still A Mystery
Blogs » Politics » 18th Party Congress Timing Still A Mystery |
- 18th Party Congress Timing Still A Mystery
- Is Containment an Obsolete Strategy?
- Photo: The pool table maker’s wife, Shangqiu, Henan, by Mark Hobbs
- Chinese Patrol Ships Arrive in Diaoyu Waters
- Chinese reality show’s contestant on casting couch of her mentor?
- China: Divisions among Anti-Japan Protesters
- Visas to China are getting harder to attain
- Op-Ed: As Chinese Protesters Go Off Script, Shadow of Ultra-Leftism Grows
- Myanmar President Says China Friendship Won’t Change
- Made in US, But Sold in China
- Chinese ‘Soft Power' Expands in Africa with CCTV
18th Party Congress Timing Still A Mystery Posted: 23 Sep 2012 11:12 PM PDT With the CCP's 18th Party Congress and the unveiling of China's next generation of leaders just weeks away, The Telegraph's Malcolm Moore reports that the delegates who are expected to attend have yet to receive a precise date:
Analysts have speculated that the delay in confirming the timing for the congress, the details of which are typically finalized during the August gathering of top leaders at the seaside resort of Beidaihe, indicates factional jockeying at the top of the Party. A resolution of the case against disgraced former Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai has also held up any progress on the congress. The Party's silence over the timing of the congress is deafening, according to The South China Morning Post:
Even with the date unknown, Jamestown Foundation fellow Willy Lam has made his prediction of who will secure seats on the revamped Politburo Standing Committee:
Whoever does take over the reins of China's top ruling bodies, they will face a number of social, economic and foreign policy challenges, and the Brookings Institution hosted a discussion last week to analyze the major issues. See also previous CDT coverage of the incoming generation of CCP leaders. © Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Is Containment an Obsolete Strategy? Posted: 23 Sep 2012 09:00 PM PDT
Here is Martel's thesis:
Martel begins with the origins of the policy, including appropriate references to George Kennan and the Cold War. Having slogged my way through an international relations degree, I always look to Kennan, who was stationed in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow at the start of the Cold War, as an almost legendary figure who helped to shape the post-war world. Kennan's most significant influence can be traced back to the famous "Long Telegram" he wrote in 1946 (an internal government document) and a 1947 article, written under the pseudonym "X," in Foreign Affairs. The X article is the one cited as the seminal articulation of containment against the Soviet Union. As Martel explains, containment as described by Kennan and implemented by the U.S. in the decades that followed the X article was multifaceted:
Containment was an ideological struggle between Communism and capitalism. It was a political struggle between two different camps and their satellite states. It was a military struggle between two nuclear-armed superpowers. The policy of containment was successful during the Cold War (a "hot war" was prevented) because, according to Martel: "the Soviet Union was an ideologically extreme, economically backward, and politically isolated state." By the 1990s, the USSR ceased to exist, and containment no longer made any sense. In his article, Martel discusses Iran, Russia and China, but let's just focus on the latter. Why is Containment 2.0 not a useful strategy for the U.S. to employ in responding to China's rise? Martel brings up two main points: politics and economics. I agree with him on both fronts. The original containment strategy pitted Communism against Capitalism, something missing from today's geopolitical struggles:
I agree. While China watchers often spend far too much time debating the "China model" or "authoritarian capitalism," often using Cold War rhetoric, China is simply not comparable to the old Soviet Union (or the Mao-era PRC) in terms of political ideology. Mobilizing nations against China on a purely ideological basis is almost laughable in 2012. Martel sums up his point quite nicely: "The West's geopolitical adversaries do not inspire awe or fear." Angst, concern, worry — perhaps. Fear and awe? I don't think so. When I think about the Soviet Union during the Cold War, images of Winston Smith in Room 101 or Rubashov in a cold, dank basement dungeon come to mind. That was the stuff of literal nightmares. What are the comparable images of modern China? Someone working overtime in a Foxconn factory? The precision drumming during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic games? A street vendor selling a fake Gucci bag? Not exactly terrifying. On the economic front, Martel argues that globalization and free markets do not allow for a viable containment strategy. Certainly global containment is difficult, if not impossible, these days. All one has to do is consider the difficulty of imposing economic sanctions on "rogue" states and realize that any attempt to minimize major players on the world stage would be pure fantasy. With China of course, even limited trade actions would be fraught with danger. Think about what could happen if certain members of the U.S. Congress had their way and all exports from China were suddenly subjected to a tariff of 25%. The damage to the economies of China, the U.S. (and many other countries) would be significant. Now imagine any attempt to turn back the clock and use trade as part of an overall containment strategy. It's simply unquestionable given economic interdependence and current patterns of international trade and global production. Martel sums up his argument thusly:
Based on politics and economics, I completely agree with Martel. However, I think he makes a mistake in deliberately avoiding the military angle. Martel might argue that during the Cold War, the military buildup on both sides was merely a tool in an ideological battle. Similarly, he might say that with the U.S. and China today, the absence of significant differences in ideology and the reality of economic interdependence obviates the need for a military struggle. I agree, but that doesn't mean that defense-based containment won't happen anyway. This is the one area where I find Martel's argument lacking. The U.S. "pivot" to Asia is all about the military. Just because the U.S. and China are economic partners and are not engaged in a political struggle does not mean that significant friction is impossible when it comes to territorial expansion and competition for natural resources. The Cold War may be over, but some of its language, such as "spheres of influences" have been making quite a comeback in the past few years. Could the U.S. use a containment strategy simply to limit the expansion of China in terms of territory and military capability? I think not only is this possible, but this is exactly what the "pivot" is all about. Has the U.S. convinced its allies in the Asia-Pacific region to increase ties to America because of ideology? Not at all. As China's military has grown and its foreign policy become more aggressive, the U.S. has found no shortage of friends here. During U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's recent trip to Asia, I suspect that the words "missiles" and "aircraft carriers" came up a lot more often than "socialism" or even "authoritarianism." For the record, I do not support containment, or the "pivot," or whatever else one wishes to call a policy that seeks to limit the rise of China. That should not be the goal of the U.S., which should focus its attention on ways to work with an ascendant China. As I've written many times, containment is an expression of a "zero-sum" mentality, the belief that as China rises, the U.S. must by definition decline. I reject that assumption. Moreover, I also believe that many of the supporters of a military build-up with China as its focus are connected in some way with the U.S. defense industry. Containing China's military will be quite profitable for some companies, and their influence on the American government is uncomfortably significant. However, just because I dislike containment, I must admit that a narrow policy consisting of a set of defense-based alliances might be with us for a number of years. A non-ideological containment strategy may not be as robust as its Cold War counterpart, but it is not yet obsolete. © Stan for China Hearsay, 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Photo: The pool table maker’s wife, Shangqiu, Henan, by Mark Hobbs Posted: 23 Sep 2012 09:29 PM PDT The pool table maker's wife, Shangqiu, Henan © Sophie Beach for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Chinese Patrol Ships Arrive in Diaoyu Waters Posted: 23 Sep 2012 09:06 PM PDT Two Chinese surveillance ships entered waters near the disputed Diaoyu Islands this morning, according to the Japanese Coast Guard, in what Chinese state media has called a "rights defense" patrol. From Reuters:
Tensions between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands, spiked earlier this month when Japan's central government agreed to purchase three of the islets from their private Japanese owners. A string of anti-Japanese demonstrations ensued across China, even turning violent as angry protesters targeted Japanese-owned businesses and products. In one incident, a mob beat a Chinese man so badly for driving a Japanese car that he is now paralyzed. From The Wall Street Journal:
The incident has evoked reflection among Chinese netizens and was the top story on Sina Weibo on Friday, according to the Wall Street Journal report. On the Japanese side, hundreds of people rallied peacefully against China in downtown Tokyo on Saturday, and the government has continued to urge the Chinese government to keep its citizens safe. The Japan Skating Federation then warned on Sunday that its skaters would pull out of next month's Cup of China in Shanghai in the absence of safety guarantees. Meanwhile, Chinese state media has continued to convey the government's hard stance on the crisis, with the People's Daily urging Japan on Sunday to "repent" for its infringement on China's territorial sovereignty. Also on Sunday, China postponed events scheduled for later this week to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two sides. From The China Daily:
What gives? With neither side indicating any willingness to negotiate a resolution of the dispute, and with Taiwan also laying claim to the islets, Mark McDonald of the International Herald Tribune takes a stab at a settlement proposal:
© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Chinese reality show’s contestant on casting couch of her mentor? Posted: 23 Sep 2012 12:18 PM PDT The Voice of China (中国好声音), a reality singing contest show that premiered in this July on the Zhejiang Television, has become a hit on the mainland and led audience ratings for its time slot. But the gossips are flying as well, with the talent show's huge success. A female contestant, Ding Ding, was rumored to have been on the casting couch of one of the show's judges or coaches, Yang Kun, a famous Chinese singer and musician, since the beginning she was picked by Yang as his team member (or trainee) in the first 'blind audition" phrase of the show. The intimate bed shots were revealed online too, after the 25-year-old hottie controversially advanced to the next round in an individual "battle" against the other powerful team member of Yang's which ever promoted the audience to think that there was something fishy. To many people's disappointment, however, these intimate shots have turned out to be bed scenes from one of Yang Kun's Music Videos. |
China: Divisions among Anti-Japan Protesters Posted: 23 Sep 2012 08:07 PM PDT Yi Lu from Tea Leaf Nation looks into the discussion among micro-bloggers and sees there are more and more divisions along the line of regional and class differences among anti-Japan protesters. Written by Oiwan Lam · comments (0) |
Visas to China are getting harder to attain Posted: 23 Sep 2012 01:34 PM PDT Over the past two months, I have been working hard to attain the Z-visa — basically, a long-term work permit. Even with an established company on my side providing all necessary paperwork, my application has yet to be submitted. Every time we go to the Labor Bureau, a new rule appears to delay and deny us. Now back in the states without a visa, I'm going for the F-visa — the basic business visa that allows you a few months' stay, but can be potentially renewed with a trip to Hong Kong. What was so easy for my friends to get in the past is suddenly mystifying. A call from my visa agent informed me of a new rule: that my authorized invitation letter needs to specifically state my gender and nationality (and other things), even though that is 1. on the application, 2. clear from both my picture and the fact that I'm applying from my home country. Rules are rules, even if they don't appear on the Chinese consulate's website. I'm going to dare say that this is not just my personal issue, resultant of blogging about China for years, as I have yet to submit the actual paperwork. I haven't even been able to get that far. My friend who works in the admissions department of a well-established American university with a campus in China said that this is the first year their students have run into trouble with visas. "The consulate sent back a ton of visa applications, saying that they didn't sound like students," she told me. This is coming from a school that has been established in China for 25 years. When another friend recently attained his Z-visa within 5 days of submission (Shanghai), I started to wonder if Beijing city (whose labor bureau has our administrative assistant running around town for this and that) is tightening its clamps for reasons of its own, something having to do with a certain political transition this December. If rock concerts and film fests in Beijing can be canceled and unplugged at will (as they were this summer), seemingly for the sake of "maintaining stability" for the upcoming leadership transition, then it should come as no surprise that foreigners are being barred from establishing themselves — especially in the capital. Filed under: Current Events Tagged: China foreign relations, China visas |
Op-Ed: As Chinese Protesters Go Off Script, Shadow of Ultra-Leftism Grows Posted: 23 Sep 2012 10:38 AM PDT [Note: The following is a Tea Leaf Nation op-ed, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of the editors.] The recent anti-Japan protests in more than 50 cities in China turned out to be not only a show of patriotism and anger, but a campaign platform for competing political ideologies. The coexistence of opposing political claims during a movement that at first blush appeared unified betrays the chaos that characterizes China's ideological sphere in an era of drastic change. Dissonant voices sounded from both sides of China's political spectrum. On September 16, protesters in the southern mega-city of Guangzhou held up a banner that read, "Turn anger into Strength; we want political reform." That same day, protesters in the nearby metropolis of Shenzhen echoed those sentiments. After carrying a banner which read, "Democracy, Freedom, Human Rights, Constitutionalism," demonstrators were arrested by the police in the name of "disrupting social order." Conservatives also weighed in. Marchers in more than 20 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou carried portraits of Mao Zedong and slogans like "Chairman Mao, we miss you" and "Long live Chairman Mao." Some even called out "Maoist ideology" to "save the country." The scene, some netizens said, reminded them of Red Guards marching through Tiananmen Square in the late 1960s, the heyday of China's famously divisive Cultural Revolution. While no evidence exists that these swerves off of the prevailing anti-Japanese script were anything other than grassroots, the government's divergent responses to the two voices have lead many to conclude that the government still favors Maoism to reformism. Indeed, the recent protests show that many of Mao's "Cultural Revolution thoughts"(文革思维)—idolatry, adoration of authority, class struggle, populism, and ignorance of law and individual rights–remain deeply rooted in Chinese society. The legacy of the Cultural Revolution The Cultural Revolution is widely regarded as the biggest man-made disaster China has experienced in the last half-century. Set into motion by Mao Zedong in 1966, it aimed to enforce Communism and Maoist orthodoxy through "class struggle," which then turned into uncontrollable spread of violence that caused millions of deaths and nationwide disorder that significantly paralyzed China's economy and society until 1976. Its scar tissue permeates Chinese politics and life because Chinese people have not had the opportunity to fully reflect on what happened in the way that Germans have reflected on the Second World War. After a quick condemnation at the third session of the eleventh central committee of the Party in 1978, the government chose to willingly forget about the tragedy, oppressing discussions about it in the public sphere. Because it has failed to learn from its history, China is still shrouded by the shadow of ultra-leftism. This is why, despite its high-speed economic growth, China is stagnating on the way to becoming democratized and civilized. As @王冉 points out on Sina Weibo, China's Twitter, the only way to prevent the kind of unconstrained and irrational violence manifested in this round of anti-Japan protests from reappearing is to thoroughly reflect on the lessons of history and start restructuring China's political system. "We shouldn't misinterpret history," he writes. "What the damaged property of our compatriots and the fires of violence show us is not the indispensability of unlimited government power or the importance of 'preserving stability.' Instead, [it shows] precisely that we should clean up the evil legacy of the Cultural Revolution, bravely push forward political reforms, expose politics to sunshine, force the government to take responsibility and let rule by law prevail. All of these are important and urgent. "[Chinese] Of course, recent demonstrations are not the first warning sign that the possibility of a revived Cultural Revolution remains latent. What happened in the western city of Chongqing from 2009 to 2011 showed how dangerous government could still become if it incorporated ultra-leftism into administrative policies. Under the principle known as "Sing Red and Strike Black"(唱红打黑), cultural symbols of Mao's era were promoted, some private companies were criminalized as gangs by judicial institutions in flagrant violation of procedural justice, and many were sent to hard labor because they had criticized the government. Fortunately, the "Chongqing model" came to a speedy end in March after Chongqing police chief Wang Lijun attempted to defect, leading to the downfall of Chongqing Communist Secretary Bo Xilai. Shortly thereafter, at a press conference following the National People's Congress, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao openly called for political reforms, warning that "if political reforms fail, a tragedy like the Cultural Revolution might be replayed." Although Wen had repeatedly mentioned political reforms in his term, never had he been as audacious and straightforward on a domestic occasion. Wen's remark brought hope and confidence to many who desire democratization in China. Sixteen days after Wen issued his remark, his determination was echoed by five citizens who met in Guangzhou and held up signs demanding political restructuring. But police soon arrested them, suggesting that Wen's words neither represented a consensus among the central and local governments nor hinted at real changes. In 2012, a sensitive year when leadership positions are to be handed over and the future of China is to be decided, the road to democracy and constitutionalism is still obscured by mixed messages and opposing political ideologies among both China's government and its society. Despite the patina of unity, what last week's anti-Japanese protests really showed is that China is not any closer to contending with its past or settling on a vision for its future. Footnotes (? returns to text)
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Myanmar President Says China Friendship Won’t Change Posted: 23 Sep 2012 10:14 AM PDT CDT previously reported Myanmar's parliament would reassess the country's relationship with China. But as Myanmar transitions to democracy, President Thein Sein told Chinese Vice President, Xi Jinping, Myanmar's friendship with China would not change. From Reuters:
China has worried about its relationship with Myanmar due to a halt in the controversial dam project in the Irrawaddy River, and Chinese media has had mixed reactions over the ending of censorship in Myanmar. The Asian Correspondent reports China has persuaded Myanmar to maintain the status quo:
According to CRIEnglish, Xi is urging Myanmar to ensure smooth implementation of projects between the two countries:
© Melissa M. Chan for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Posted: 23 Sep 2012 10:05 AM PDT As analysts claim "Made in China" products actually profit American producers, the New York Times reports a manufacturing shift now has certain products made in the United States but sold in China. This shift comes amid a slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the decrease in demand from the US and the European Union:
Aside from custom-made water faucets, US manufacturers are producing other high-end products to meet Chinese demand, from Jing Daily:
Despite the slowdown in manufacturing and increase in imports, the Financial Times reports the appeal of China as a manufacturing base has not yet disappeared:
© Melissa M. Chan for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | One comment | Add to del.icio.us |
Chinese ‘Soft Power' Expands in Africa with CCTV Posted: 23 Sep 2012 04:35 AM PDT Chinese government state-controlled media, China Central Television (CCTV), launched its African regional bureau in Nairobi, Kenya on January 11, 2012. While its presence has diversified the media landscape in Africa, media watchdogs and foreign media outlets - such as CNN and the New York Times - have been rather skeptical of its journalistic independence given the media organization's close ties with the government. Background of CCTV Africa According to its official website, CCTV Africa produces a daily one-hour news program, a weekly talk show, a weekly documentary series program. The channel has recently produced a special documentary program to introduce Kenya. CCTV Africa has about 100 employees, many are Kenyans. The new entrant "raid[ed] a number of local TV stations for notable broadcasters and other staff", according to eXpression Today, a magazine published by The Media Institute, a media-watch non-governmental organization in Kenya. Since the decision to establish CCTV in Nairobi was made in the 2006 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), the NGO watchdog speculated:
CCTV and China's soft power in Africa The presence of Chinese media outlets in Africa can be traced back to as early as 1950s, when Xinhua News Agency and China Radio International (CRI) started broadcasting. During that time, the goal of these outlets was to disseminate propaganda and support the African liberation movements. Nowadays, many western media and observers believe that the presence of CCTV in Africa is to expand the Chinese government's soft power and compete with media giants in the West, such as CNN and BBC. Tom Rhodes from the Committee to Protect Journalists comments that:
Wu Yu-shan [pdf], who published a research paper in June 2012 on the rise of China's state-led media dynasty in Africa recently, points out:
Wu [pdf] also argues that China wants to counter the negative portrayal by Western media giants, an observation confirmed by CCTV Africa bureau chief Song Jia-ning in July 2012:
Objectivity of CCTV in question Wu's paper also questioned the editorial objectivity of CCTV [pdf] given its state-owned nature:
Media Watchdog NGO eXpression Today also points out:
Journalist Sambuddha Mitra Mustafi believes that money can't buy credibility:
Media exchanges between China and Africa have become more frequent since the 2000s (see Wu's paper [pdf]), ranging from technical support, content provision, exchange between officials, and journalistic training. However, the journalistic training programs has been under scrutiny. There is a story in Shinn and Eisenman's new book, China and Africa: A Century of Engagement, written by Gideon Nkala and originally published in Mmegi Online:
Written by Ronald Yick · comments (0) |
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