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Photo: Kit Kat By Angie Pants

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 11:22 PM PDT

“Golden Week” Still Golden For China’s Rich

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 11:10 PM PDT

The average wealth of China's super rich may be down this year, but that hasn't stopped them from going all out with their "Golden Week" travel plans. From Reuters:

Helen Shen, a travel planner in , said a private business owner had booked the whole first-class section of a Lufthansa jet to fly his family of four to Paris this month.

Shen is one of many organisers who still see the money rolling in from executives and members of the "fu er dai" – the second generation of wealthy families – despite China's economic uncertainty.

"If you look at your affluent Chinese overseas, they are your tourist, your shopper, your investor all in one," said Christine Lu, co-founder of Affinity China, a Shanghai-based luxury travel firm.

"Even though there is all the talk of a slowdown in China, the luxury sector we are dealing with is a segment that can still afford to travel," Lu said.

The luxury travel industry may still be thriving, but other sectors have not fared as well. For The Financial Times, Chris Bryant and John Reed report that China's luxury car sector may finally be catching a cold, and the Wall Street Journal's Tom Orlik explores the sharp fall in retail sales of luxury jewelry:

One reason is of course the . Another: The once-in-a-decade transition in China's top leadership – which is expected to take place at the some time in October.

Gift giving, which oils the wheels of business, accounts for about 16% of China's luxury sales according to estimates by CLSA. The , which will ripple down from the top leadership to decision makers at all levels of the government, has thrown that into confusion.

One Beijing based salesman from a major importer who spoke to The Wall Street Journal summed up the problem facing the sector: "Sales are down because no-one knows who to bribe."

See also previous CDT coverage of how the global economic downturn has impacted China's ultra rich.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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Living Conditions Become New Labor Flashpoint

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 10:18 PM PDT

Following the major brawl at a Foxconn factory campus in Taiyuan, individual workers are speaking out about living conditions there which may have contributed to the unrest. From Bloomberg:

The campus used by 79,000 workers in Taiyuan in northern Shanxi province showed the damage caused by the Sunday clash among laborers that left more than 40 people hospitalized. Windows in a bathhouse, supermarket, arcade and parked cars were shattered.

Chairman Terry Gou has moved in recent years to improve conditions at his factories after a spate of suicides. The company's largest customer, Apple Inc., pressured to make the changes.

But some improvements had not reached Taiyuan, workers said. They charged that the facility has inferior food, poor sanitation and overcrowded dorms, while security guards are young, poorly trained and too aggressive.

"The guards here use gangster style to manage," said Foxconn worker Fang Zhongyang, 23, outside campus gates. "We are not against following rules, but you have to tell us why. They won't explain things, and we feel like we cannot communicate with them."

Reuters also talks to workers at the Taiyuan plant:

Wang, who did not want his full name published, is among thousands of workers housed in a vast complex where tensions aggravated by regimented and cramped living conditions boiled over on Sunday into a violent mass riot.

"The bathrooms are simply disgusting and people are constantly stealing things," Wang said as he stood outside of the factory in the northern city of Taiyuan, owned by Apple Inc's largest contract manufacturer, Taiwan firm Foxconn.

Until the riot, which turned from a personal dorm squabble into battles between police and about 2,000 workers and spilled over into Monday, the focus of labor discontent in China had been on production lines, especially those making products for Apple.

The unrest, which left about 40 people injured, metal factory gates flattened, cars overturned and windows smashed, shifted the focus on to broader living conditions, particularly for who live in thousands of factory dormitories around the country.

Hong Kong-based China Labour Bulletin reports on online discussions between workers about the incident:

Workers' sentiment on China's online forums was divided, some angry, some joyful. Workers were eager to post photos and make comments on the events. And some workers from other Foxconn plants in Henan, Shandong, and Shenzhen posted letters praising the Taiyuan workers for their courage to start a riot.

Amid the general exuberance, there were a few voices calling on workers to stay calm and be rational. A worker, who said he had been employed at Taiyuan Foxconn for three years, highlighted the failure of the Foxconn trade unions to properly represent workers' interests. This he said had complicated the longstanding conflict between management and workers. He hoped workers could handle the conflict in a rational manner in order to avoid unnecessary casualties.

This post was immediately challenged by another worker, who responded that workers had not meant to instigate a riot but that they had no other way to address injustice. When they called a hotline to complain about the abusive security guards, for example, they were told their complaint could not be handled.

For more on the Foxconn incident, read "Foxconn Closes Plant After Worker Brawl" and "Foxconn Plant Open, But Broader Issues Persist" via CDT.

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Crystal Liu Yifei strips for The Assassins

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 01:18 PM PDT

Crystal Liu Yifei strips for The Assassins

On September 26, Zhao Linshan's latest film The Assassins (铜雀台), previously known as Bronze Sparrow Terrace or Bronze Sparrow Platform, starring mega star Chow Yun-fat and actress Crystal Liu Yifei, premiered in Beijing.

Crystal Liu takes on the dual role of Diao Chan and Diao Chan's daughter (Lingju) in the historical romance film that focuses on Han Dynasty warlord Cao Cao (played by Chow Yun-fat)'s life in his later years.

The film revolves around a story that Mu Shun (played by Japanese actor Hiroshi Tamaki) and Lingju, a pair of young lovers who have undergone five years of training in a prisoner-of-war camp to become assassins against Cao Cao, prepare to accomplish a secret mission.

The Bronze Sparrow Terrace was constructed by Cao Cao as a display of power, after defeating rival warlords to gain supremacy in northern China.

The film has expressed a lot of audience, especially when Crystal Liu, who is hailed as a jade girl, strips naked in a scene.

Crystal Liu Yifei strips for The Assassins

China's digital publishing market

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 07:34 PM PDT

China: A New Breed of Sino-foreign Film Co-productions

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 07:26 PM PDT

China Hearsay republished an article from Agenda Magazine about various "tricks" to get into the China film market by making use of the system of Sino-foreign film co-productions. The issue at stake is, if there is two versions of the same film catering the China and western market, can we still call it co-production?

Written by Oiwan Lam · comments (0)
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Politics Holding Back Economic Reforms

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 07:47 PM PDT

Heading into the National Day holiday, and on the cusp of a yet-to-be-scheduled , The New York Times' Andrew Jacobs reports that political distractions have prevented the Communist Party from making the tough decisions needed to address China's slumping :

Although the departing government has tried in recent months to address decelerating growth by easing bank loan restrictions, increasing pensions and offering tax breaks to small businesses, a lack of consensus among the top stewards of the economy has stymied a more muscular response, insiders say.

Similarly, many analysts question whether the incoming leadership has the political will to overcome the resistance of the so-called princelings and other well-connected families that have prospered under the current system.

China's standard economic formula, they say, is losing its potency: overzealous government investment and lagging consumer spending are creating serious imbalances that are expected to lead to a much more painful reckoning, perhaps not long after the new raft of younger leaders assumes power in early 2013.

"There are tough choices to make, but the central government appears to be so paralyzed they are just sitting on their hands," said Ho-Fung Hung, a political economist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "The situation is looking increasingly dire."

China's economy is expected to grow 7.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2012, according to a Tsinghua University think tank, and Reuters reports that a vice governor of the People's Bank of China reiterated the desire of policymakers to steer growth lower. Still, the slowdown has impacted all levels of the economy — China's largest steelmaker announced Thursday that it had shut down a mill in Shanghai, and the China Daily reports that confidence among small and medium-sized enterprises has slid amid declining trade volumes. While the regime has relied on blistering economic growth to bring about and preserve its own legitimacy, data collected by Richard A. Easterlin of the University of Southern California shows that growth may be outpacing happiness. Also from The New York Times:

As the recent riots at a factory in northern China demonstrate, growth alone, even at sustained, spectacular rates, has not produced the kind of life satisfaction crucial to a stable society — an experience that shows how critically important good jobs and a strong social safety net are to people's happiness.

Starting in 1990, as China moved to a free-market economy, real per-capita consumption and gross domestic product doubled, then doubled again. Most households now have at least one color TV. Refrigerators and washing machines — rare before 1990 — are common in cities.

Yet there is no evidence that the Chinese people are, on average, any happier, according to an analysis of survey data that colleagues and I conducted. If anything, they are less satisfied than in 1990, and the burden of decreasing satisfaction has fallen hardest on the bottom third of the population in wealth. Satisfaction among Chinese in even the upper third has risen only moderately.

© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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Is the PLA up for a War?

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 04:33 PM PDT

Every few months China has some kind of territorial spat with one of its neighbors – be it Japan, the Philippines or Vietnam – that gets everybody worried about war. As I was standing amidst the unusually vitriolic  anti-Japanese demonstrations recently, it felt like those worries had reached a fever pitch and that the government might actually cave to public calls for military action. Sometimes it feels like a miracle that it hasn't already happened.

There are plenty of good reasons why China hasn't invoked its military: The economic implications, the possibility of US military involvement, being perceived internationally as a belligerent bully. But there may be an even more compelling reason than any of these: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) might not be up to the task.

There seems to be a widespread assumption that without US-backing, militaries from Japan, Vietnam or Taiwan would fall swiftly to the overwhelming might of the world's largest army. China's military spending routinely increases by the double-digits, far outpacing its GDP growth. Last year that spending amounted to $91 billion – a 12.7% increase over the previous year. It's expected to be $106 billion this year.

Now I'm not a military expert by any means, but I have seen how major government monopolies tend to function in China. This might give us a better idea of the PLA's capabilities than the raw numbers do. So let's look at another major state monopoly: The Ministry of Railways.

This is a fiefdom if there ever was one. The opaque ministry has its hand in everything vaguely related to or surrounding railways, from construction and manufacturing to hospitals and schools. Corruption and nepotism thrive. There was the $2.9 million promotional film where funds were funneled away, the SINGLE official who was able to embezzle $121 million, and the series of photos showing absurdly marked up bullet train items that resulted from government procurement.

This week the ministry is back in the news as its $52 million online ticketing system continues to be worthless on the eve of another busy holiday. Netizens have demanded to know why the system cost so much, yet is worse than actually standing in line at the train station.

If I may throw out some wild speculation (based on overwhelming precedent): Perhaps a chain of railway officials outsourced the site design to increasingly cheaper (AKA – decreasingly qualified) designers while pocketing the difference and/or gave contracts to personal connections for wildly inflated prices.

Now shift back to the PLA, which is larger, more powerful and more secretive than the Ministry of Railways. So powerful and secret in fact that it operates as an entirely separate entity from civilian government and laws.

People tend to see the huge annual PLA budget increases as a threat to China's neighbors, but to a large extent it's a way to quell the PLA's danger to the Communist Party.  Fear of a military coup has always weighed heavy on the party leadership and big budgets are one way of buying the military's continued loyalty. It doesn't take a big leap of faith to guess that a lot of that money is lost to corruption.

In spite of its many scandals, the Ministry of Railways gets its job done for the most part…horrible inefficiency and occasional disasters aside. The public can see many of its failings, which keeps it a bit more honest and efficient than it otherwise might be. And if Hu Jintao decides to seriously clean house of corrupt railways officials, he doesn't need to worry about tanks rolling up to his office the next day.

With the PLA though, these things are all question marks.

John Garnaut did a great article earlier this year based on inside sources trying to explain how pervasive and destructive corruption is in the PLA. The problem is that because of its enormous power and complete secrecy, it's impossible for outsiders (and insiders for that matter) to appreciate the true scale and what it means for battle capability.

With a naval/aerial engagement – which is what most potential conflicts would entail – victory would be decided more by hardware than troop numbers. It's possible that even in the absence of US involvement, China's military apparatus could falter when facing a presumably weaker opponent like Japan, or even Taiwan (See this in-depth analysis of a possible Sino-Japanese naval war).

If that were to happen, the Chinese government would have a tough choice. It could try to convince people that the US military was actually secretly involved and mitigate its failing, or it could try to answer directly as to why, in spite of a much better funded and staffed military, China got beaten by "little Japan."

Neither option is very palatable, and the mere possibility of having to make that choice might be a major hedge against an all-out war.

Censorship Vault: Shanghai Metro Crash

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 04:06 PM PDT

Editor's Note: From the Vault features previously untranslated instructions from the archives of the CDT series Directives from the (真理部指令). These instructions, issued to the media and/or Internet companies by various central (and sometimes local) government authorities, have been leaked and distributed online. CDT has collected the selections we translate here from a variety of sources and has checked them against official Chinese media reports to confirm their implementation.

A victim of the Metro crash is helped to safety.

Two trains collided on Line 10 of the Shanghai Metro on this day last year, injuring almost 300 passengers. The accident was initially blamed on a signal failure but was later traced to human error. This accident followed the deadly high-speed train crash in Wenzhou just months before. Lax enforcement of safety protocol and shoddy construction both contributed to the accident.

State Council Information Office: Please close all news discussion boards related to the Shanghai Metro tailgating incident. Promptly clean up and delete messages which seize the opportunity to attack the Party, the government, Party leaders and the social system. Promptly remove discussions seeking to mobilize or incite action. (September 27, 2011)

国新办：上海地铁追尾事件请关闭新闻跟帖，及时清理删除借机攻击党和政府、攻击党的领导人、攻击社会制度的信息，及时删除行动性、煽动性的言论。

Since directives are sometimes communicated orally to journalists and editors, who then leak them online, the wording published here may not be exact. The original publication date is noted after the directives; the date given may indicate when the directive was leaked, rather than when it was issued. CDT does its utmost to verify dates and wording, but also takes precautions to protect the source.

© Anne.Henochowicz for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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Why Technology Needs People: Gold, Phones, and Bicycles

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 02:57 PM PDT

Memo #177

By Robin Jeffrey (isasrbj [at] nus.edu.sg) and Assa Doron (assa.doron [at] anu.edu.au)

"We treated our precinct captains like gold," wrote David Plouffe, an architect of President Obama's 2008 US election campaign. "The challenge" lay in "marrying digital technology and strategy with a strong grassroots campaign."

Plouffe's insights had been anticipated a year earlier in an election in Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state, where a party led by a Dalit (former untouchable) woman won unexpectedly. And the story about the centrality of technology and people came full circle early in 2012 when Uttar Pradesh voted to throw out the incumbent government.

In 2007, the surprising victory of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) resulted from its use of mobile phones to link its vast cadre of dedicated workers. The BSP's workers were overwhelmingly Dalits, united by outrage against the illegal discrimination they constantly face. In the past, BSP workers communicated with each other, and potential voters, only with great difficulty – by bicycle, postcards, telegrams, and rarely, telephones.

Cheap communications: bicycles, auto rickshaws – and mobile phones

When the use of cheap mobile phones surged across India from 2004, BSP workers found a powerful new tool. In 2002, India had seven million mobile phones; by 2007, it had 200 million. "The mobile," a BSP worker told a researcher in 2011, "has made it very easy for us to convey our message."

Uttar Pradesh has 120,000 polling stations, and in 2007 the BSP had a mobile-phone-wielding captain working at thousands of them. In a low-turnout election (46 per cent of registered voters voted), they got their supporters to the polls and won 206 out of 403 seats.

In 2012, improved telecommunications were taken for granted and helped to produce the highest turnout (60 per cent) in Uttar Pradesh's history. The BSP had plenty of mobile phones; but the leader had lost touch with the faithful and the BSP was reduced to 80 seats.

The rival Samajwadi Party energized its supporters, both by the sight of its leader's son Akhilesh Yadav, on a bicycle and by the human touch that voices on a phone can provide. "Call me frivolous," a journalist wrote, "but Akhilesh Yadav won because he cycled."

Dr. Robin Jeffrey is at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore and Dr. Assa Doron is at the College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University.

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Text messages instruct party faithful on why their leader ought to be Prime Minister.

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  • Our other Memos about India.

Liaoning – Paper Tiger or Growing Cub?

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 01:02 PM PDT

China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, is seen docked at Dalian Port, in Dalian, China, on September 23, 2012.

Colonel Brian Killough is U.S. Air Force Military Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

On Tuesday, the People's Republic of China(PRC) joined 9 other nations—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, India, Thailand, Spain, Italy, and Brazil—that have aircraft carriers in their naval arsenal. But what does that mean for nations in the region and how should we assess the long-term implications?

For many regional observers, the announcement hardly ruffles feathers. In fact, some see it as a liability. For example, "The fact is the aircraft carrier is useless for the Chinese Navy," You Ji, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, said in an interview. He continued, "If it is used against America, it has no survivability. If it is used against China's neighbors, it's a sign of bullying." Chinese leaders are the first to admit the Liaoning is for training purposes only and in fact, China's air force doesn't even have aircraft capable of landing on the carrier. Furthermore, carriers are more vulnerable without their protective and supporting battle groups. These battle groups require technology, investment, and training over the course of a decade or more to bring them together as an effective fighting force. Meanwhile, as pointed out above, as a concentration of capabilities, resources, and manpower, a carrier quickly becomes both a high-value asset and a high-value target for adversaries.

What benefit does the carrier bring to the PRC? First, it is a symbol of national pride for a nation that is rallying more and more frequently to nationalism in the waters of the East and South China Sea. Second, it serves as a testbed and developmental vessel for the next generation of up to five more Chinese carriers which have been reported to be in design and development. Third, even if the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has no desire to go into battle with other world superpowers, it would certainly give the nation an option for displaying military might in regions where the PRC has strategic interests around the globe. This hearkens back to the concept of nineteenth century gunboat diplomacy. For example, if you are a coastal African nation with significant resource trade with the PRC and there is a dispute over future rights or how Chinese citizens are treated, and a PRC aircraft carrier shows up off your coastline, it may influence your decision calculus. It also gives the PLAN a lot of staying power closer to home in the disputed areas of the East and South China Seas. If the ship is equipped with a wing of J-15 aircraft (currently under development in China), and then deployed near the Senkaku/Diaoyu, Paracel, or Spratly Islands, the PRC will have arguably established sustainable air dominance over the area.

So, the question remains, is the Liaoning a significant new capability or is it a waste of money on a capability that China will never realize? The reality probably lies between the two possibilities. PRC leaders understand that with exponentially increasing demands for raw goods caused by their growing economy, they must be prepared to field a blue-water navy to protect their strategic interests. The Liaoning is a measured step in the long trek toward a globally-capable navy that an emerging superpower needs. For a nation that takes a long and measured view of history, it is a logical investment. It is also a solid indicator of intent, but not a threat … yet.

Spotted on Weibo: Everybody’s Doing the Split

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 01:05 PM PDT

Yesterday, a photograph of a girl wearing a white vest and ballet slippers and doing a 45-degree split in her dorm room went viral. It led to what Sina entertainment called an online "battle between beauties." [Chn] Some of the photos feature young women eating lunch or talking on their cell phones while doing the splits. 

To those dear readers contemplating participation in this battle: We should warn you that splits can be painful for the untrained. Indeed, our favorites have to be the last two images in this series. Scroll down and you'll see why. 

Ouch. Via Weibo

Footnotes    (? returns to text)
  1. 美女争相挑战?

The Slap that Changed China's History

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 09:18 AM PDT

On September 24, 2012, the former police chief of Chongqing, Wang Lijun, who is at the center of China's biggest political scandal in recent memory, was sentenced to 15 years in prison on four charges: bending the law for personal interest, defection, abuse of power and corruption.

Wang Lijun, 52, has been the former police chief of Chongqing, a western metropolis governed by Bo Xilai, a Communist Party high flier hoping to rise higher. After a falling out with Bo during which he was removed from his job, Wang drove to the United States Consulate in Chengdu and blew the whistle on the murder of a British businessman, Neil Heywood, by Bo's wife, Gu Kailai.

With his cooperation in bringing down Gu Kailai, Wang received a reduced sentence on the charge of "bending the law for personal interest" instead of the death penalty he could have faced for the charges that were laid against him.

A cartoonist Kuang Biao from Sina Weibo highlighted the slap on Wang Lijun's face with Photoshop.

A cartoonist Kuang Biao from Sina Weibo highlighted the slap on Wang Lijun's face with Photoshop.

The slap that changed history

In the official account of Wang's trial, there was still no mention of how the conflict between Wang and Bo's family started and when it aggregated.

Yet, a slap in the face that Bo give Wang when confronted with the allegation about the murder of Heywood by Gu Kailai was brought to the spotlight and ridiculed by many netizens as "a slap that changed history" [zh]:

@炎黄胄裔  一个耳光改变了中国历史的进程，使中国免于重新走向文革，从这个意义上来说，护士长这个耳光真是太伟大了。

@炎黄胄裔: The slap changed China's history and prevented China from heading to another Culture Revolution. To some extent, the slap in Wang's face was significant.

雁山云江 compared [zh] the effects of the slap with the "Butterfly Effect":

从"蝴蝶效应"到"耳光效应"，这巴掌真是法力无边啊，从太平洋西岸刮到东岸。

@雁山云江: Forget about Butterfly Effects, we now have Slap Effects – a slap shacked the whole world.

Hu Shuli, editor in chief of the business magazine Caixin, commented on the drama with words from Chinese philosopher Mencius in her Weibo [zh]:

君视臣如草芥，则臣视君如寇仇。

If the monarch considers his subject worthless,  the subject takes the monarch as his enemy.

A new saying regarding the significant of the slap has been circulated around social media by netizens such as @P民报2012, @免费长沙, @柴米有言在先 and many others:

一个巴掌就算改变不了历史，也会改变一个方向

Even if a slap cannot change the history, it can at least change the direction of the history.

Wang Lijun's fear

Several netizens have taken a step further by asking what's wrong with the political and legal system in China. On a famous online forum, KDnet, user zxb_yiran tries [zh] to explain the origin of Wang Lijun's fear:

一个直辖市的公安局长，手上掌握了国家所赋予的执法大权，却敢于在得知有人杀人后，安排部下为其掩饰并在毁尸灭迹后，还主动打电话向杀人犯报告说"化作青烟，驾鹤西去"。法律在一个颇有地位的执法者心中完全成为了私人关系中被可以随意践踏的玩物。这样的人是如何成为执法者的？如果他曾经是一个法律的捍卫者，那么，他又是如何变成了一个践踏法律的人的？……因为百思不得其解，所以就产生恐惧。原来，行使了多年的社会管理机制和机构竟然管不了高级别的官员犯罪。

The police chief of a metropolis should be endowed with the power of law enforcement by the country. However, he plotted with Gu Kailai and dared to cover up for Gu's murder brazenly. As a high-status law enforcement personnel, he himself is trampling on the law. How can he be an officer of law enforcement. What transformed him from a law protector to a lawbreaker? …… The fear comes from the doubts. It drives the social management system home to me and I come to realize that the high-status officials' crime is simply not bound by the system.

Blogger Wang Jian's post [zh] "Wang Lijun's Fear is the Same as Our Fear", which has been spread around the social media, delivered a similar message:

王立军的恐惧，正是我们的恐惧，政改不走，民主宪政不推行，重庆事件无法断根。大家醒醒吧！

Wang Lijun's fear is exactly our fear. If the party still refuse to carry out the political reform and the democracy constitution, it is hard to say whether the Chongqing scandal will repeat. Wake up!

The fate of Bo Xilai

Wang Lijun's verdict moved the party closer to a formal decision on dealing with Bo Xilai. As China's ruling party is expecting the once-a-decade leadership handover at the party congress as early as next month, it must now decide whether Bo will face charges and what his future political career may be.

Given the fact that Bo's name was rarely brought up in his wife's and Wang Lijun's verdicts, speculators suggest that Bo may be treated leniently, possibly avoiding a criminal trial altogether and only undergoing a Communist Party disciplinary procedure.

Written by Gloria Wong · comments (0)
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Video: TLN Editor and Author Discuss Diaoyu Dispute on Huff Post Live

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 08:42 AM PDT

The protestors may have gone home for the time being, but the dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands are far from over. TLN author Helen Gao and editor David Wertime were joined by NYU professor David Denoon and University of Pennsylvania professor Avery Goldstein on Huff Post Live to discuss the historical underpinnings of the dispute, as well as possible scenarios for American entanglement. Thanks to Helen for staying up in the wee hours of the night!   

 

China: Intraparty Democracy

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 05:01 AM PDT

Qian Gang from China Media Project reviewed the discussion and development of Intra-party democracy within the Chinese Communist Party through the so-called "open nomination and direct election" in the election of grassroots representatives.

Written by Oiwan Lam · comments (0)
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Morbid Humor Abounds in Slaughterhouse Known as the Chinese Stock Market

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 06:48 AM PDT

Q: The chairman of the CSRC (China's equivalent of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) and the chairman of a public company in China both fall into a river. You only have one rock, who would you kill? 

A: Whoever tries to save them.

The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 43 month-low on September 26 to below 2,000, a stomach-churning fall from around 6,000 points in 2007, and investors seem to want to dull their pain with large doses of dark humor. 

@金融圈绝密档案 tweets on Sina Weibo, China's Twitter, "A popular way to dis people these days is to say 'How come you are as stupid as someone who invests in the stock market?'" Sina's Finance Channel (@新浪财经) goes for the deadpan, "Greece may be in dire straits, but analysts believe that investment opportunities in the Greek stock market is better than the Chinese market." [1]

Hades says hi

Fan Wei (@范炜), a media analyst, tweets another popular joke, "Bought at the bottom and thought that was the floor, but didn't know there was a basement below. Bought at the basement level, but didn't know there was a dungeon below. Bought at the dungeon level, didn't know there was the earth's crust below. Bought at the earth's crust level, but didn't know there was a hell below. Bought at the hell level, but didn't know there were [expletive] eighteen levels of hell." [2]

At the 18th level of hell? Don't celebrate just yet. @大学生讲坛 tweets, "A stock market investor asks Hades, 'What level of hell is this?' Hades replies, 'The 18th.' The investor tears up out of happiness, 'Finally I've managed to buy at the bottom!' Hades looks at him with a smile, 'Don't you know that hell has IPOed and expanded to 36 levels?'" [3]

China's retail investors complain about poor regulation, systematic fraud and rampant insider trading. Shi Shusi (@石述思), a social critic, tweeted, "China's lottery is a legal casino, and China's stock market is a legal slaughterhouse." [4] Many agree with Shi that China's stock market is where those with privilege and access take the lunch money of the little guys. @Antares2046 quips, "Gotta have a place for legal money laundering." [5]

@金融圈绝密档案 is more direct in his attacks, "The symptom of the market is wild fluctuation and sharp rises and falls–like a financial black hole it sucks dry retail investors' hard-earned money, like a meat grinder it crushes retail investors' confidence. Market interference from the authorities twisted supply and demand and valuation standards, and allowed so many crappy companies to come to market. Interference from the authorities has become the cancer of the stock market!" [6] 

Like your odds against the house?

Cancer or not, China's stock market is highly sensitive to changes in government policies. By the close of business on September 27, the Shanghai Composite rose 2.6% on speculations that the CSRC may introduce new policies to save the market ahead of the 18th Communist Party Congress.

But what if the CSRC decides that upcoming occasions should be commemorated with the stock market index? Qiu Yugang (@裘聿纲), editor of a tech magazine, tweets, "I heard that the stock market may fall to 1,949 points to celebrate National Day, and then to 1,921 points to herald the start of the 18th Party Congress, and then fall to 1,818.55, to celebrate the birthday of Marx." [7] (For those not good with dates, the People's Republic was founded in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party was founded in 1921 and Karl was born on May 5, 1818.)

No matter what happens to the index in the coming days, the Founder Magazine (@创业家杂志) concludes that "no stock is suitable for retail investors," and brave souls should be prepared to "go in as a crocodile and come out a gecko; go in as a python and come out an earthworm; go in as a BMW and come out a bicycle."

Consider yourself warned.

Footnotes    (? returns to text)
  1. 希腊目前可能正处于水深火热局面中，但分析称当前希腊股市投资机会好于中国股市。?
  2. 本想抄底，而且抄在了地板上，却没想到还有地下室；抄在地下室的，没想到下面还有地窖；抄到了地窖的，没想到下面还有地壳；抄在地壳上的，没想到下面还有地狱；拼死抄到了地狱里的，结果是死了也没想到：地狱居然还TM真有十八层。?
  3. 一位股民问阎王：这里是地狱的多少层？ 阎王道：18层；股民激动得泪流满面：我终于抄到了地域18层的底！ 阎王看了股民一眼，轻蔑的笑道：你不知道地狱通过"IPO"已经扩建到36层了么?
  4. 中国福彩是合法赌场，中国股市是合法屠场。?
  5.  总得有合法洗钱的地方?
  6. 【权力干预是中国股市的癌症】股市的病症就是上串下跳、暴涨暴跌，像金融黑洞一样吸干了散户们的血汗钱；像绞肉机一样碾碎了散户信心。是权力干预扭曲了供求关系与估值标准、导致了垃圾公司的泛滥。权力干预已成影响股市健康的癌症！?
  7. 听说，股市会跌到1949点欢庆国庆，再跌到1921点迎接十八大的召开。最后定格在1818.55，欢呼马克思诞辰?

Will China Fall Prey to the ‘Skyscraper Curse'?

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 03:27 AM PDT

China is set to pass the United States in numbers of skyscrapers. According to MotianCity, a research organization in China, currently there are 470 skyscrapers in China, 332 under construction and 516 in planning. By 2022, the number of skyscrapers in China will reach 1,318 compared to 563 in the US.

In addition, the tallest building (828 meters) in Dubai will then be replaced by a 838 meter high tower in Changsha. The total investment on the construction of skyscrapers will reach more than RMB 1,700 billion. However, whilst some Chinese citizens are in celebratory mood over these construction achievements, many are worried about the 'skyscraper curse'.

According to the Skyscraper Index put forward in January 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, the world's tallest buildings often rise on the eve of economic downturns. Investment in skyscrapers peaks at the time when an economy is about to recess.

Shanghai Putong's skyline in 2009. Photo by Remko Tanis (CC: BY-NC-SA)

Shanghai Putong's skyline in 2009. Photo by Remko Tanis (CC: BY-NC-SA)

Below is a selection of discussions about the Southern Metropolis' report [zh] on the skyscraper story from Sina Weibo comment thread [zh]:

热狗方包：这个是不可能实现的，因为10年后中国的经济已深陷泥潭而不拔。

热狗方包: I don't think [the vision to become top of the world] cannot be realized. In ten years time, the Chinese economy will be in the mud.

美容瘦身研究会：这个不仅是浮夸风。如果不进行政治改革，将玩完。出口倒了，消费起不来，因为贫富严重不均，政府投资越多，腐败越多，效率越低。当年苏联垮掉，因为投资已占鸡的屁70%以上。

美容瘦身研究会：This is not just a culture of extravagance. If we don't have political reform, the country will be doomed to failure. When export collapses, consumption shrinks, the disparity between rich and poor further deteriorates, the more government invests will result in more corruption and deficiency. When the USSR collapsed, the government investment was 70% of the GDP.

你的六等星：1.7万亿投入到教育医疗基础设施社会保障给中国带来的利益是那些华而不实的大楼所不能比的，政府这都想不到吗？

你的六等星：The benefit of the 1,700 billion investment, if spent in education and public health would be more substantial than the skyscrapers. How come the government won't do that?

矿工菅井利羽：神经病，造更多高楼去让恐怖分子开飞机撞吗？中国又不是缺土地，欧美欧洲日本这种早已知道摩天大楼没什么用了、现在也就迪拜中国这种暴发户热衷于这种东西了，呵呵

矿工菅井利羽：Crazy. Are we setting up targets for terrorists to attack us with all these skyscrapers. All the developed countries in Europe, America and Japan do not find skyscrapers desirable. Only the nouveau riche countries, like Dubai and China are so eager to build such towers.

D9只耗子：摩天大楼的疯狂建立是经济大萧条的征兆

D9只耗子：The craze for skyscrapers is the symptom of upcoming economic depression.

在田人：城市就像人的肌体，最重要的就是健康。一个城市健康与否，要看功能配套是否完善，看抵御天灾人祸的能力怎么样，看市民的综合素质和文明程度高不高？光是城市表面的奢华亮丽，一场暴雨、或大火、或瘟疫，就足以把她撕裂。比赛建高楼，谁最高兴？市民吗？

在田人：The city is like human's organ. Health is most important. Whether a city is healthy depends on its functionality, its ability to withstand disaster, its citizens' attribution and civic manner. The extravagance outlook of the city is just a fragile mask which can be torn off easily by a rainstorm or a big fire or a epidemic. Who is happy about the skyscraper race? Will ordinary citizens be happy about it?

裸奔—蜗牛：给几点建议：1，入口处放体重秤一把 2，请气象局严格监控刮风下雨，飞禽动向，以防某只鸟飞行中打瞌睡不小心撞上，造成严重后果。3，看门人，电梯工给双倍工资，因其是高危职业，随时有顶锅、进号子的危险。

裸奔—蜗牛：A few suggestions: 1. place a scale in front of the entrance; 2. the weather observatory body should monitor the wind and rain, also the birds' move, in case some sleepy birds crash onto the wall of the buildings and bring disaster. 3. should give double salaries to the door keeper and lift maintenance workers, all these are highly risky jobs and they probably have to take all the blame when disasters happen.

飞上蓝天390：建的越高，人民越穷，倒的越快！

飞上蓝天390：the higher the skyscrapers are, the poorer people are, the quicker they will fall.

Written by Oiwan Lam · comments (0)
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Liu Xiang comes in new ad for sexual dysfunction treatment

Posted: 26 Sep 2012 07:37 PM PDT

Liu Xiang comes in new ad for sexual dysfunction treatment

Chinese ever hero and 2004 Olympic gold medalist Liu Xiang was made fun of by a men's health hospital, which used his Olympic photo in an ad to promote its treatment for male sexual disorders.

The ad features the star hurdler "sitting on the track looking upset and pained". The photo was taken from the 2012 London Olympics when he fell at the first hurdle in the 110m hurdles heat.

And the title of the ad in bold type reads, "Fall down right at the start! Premature ejaculation, man's unspeakable pain!"

Apparently, the hospital did not obtain Liu's approval to use his image.

Liu and his coach Sun now are considering whether to sue the hospital, according to the Yangtze Evening News.

The 2004 Olympic hurdles champion has been troubled by his foot injury since 2008. He pulled out of 2008 Beijing Olympics, and failed to finish a race again at the 2012 London Olympics.

h/o to May Daily

After Wang, Bo Xilai Awaits his Fate

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 02:57 AM PDT

Wang Lijun's sentencing to 15 years in prison once again raises questions over the fate of his former boss, , whose whereabouts remain unknown. Keith B. Richburg at The Washington Post tries to unscramble Bo's current plight:

Bo's only known communication with his family since his ouster was an emotional letter sent in April to his mother-in-law, Fan Chengxiu, written with a traditional Chinese brush. Bo said he hoped to quietly read books while waiting for his case to be resolved, according to a family associate who saw the letter.

[…T]he separate trials of Gu, Wang and four other police officers charged in the coverup left unanswered the crucial question of what Bo knew about the and when he knew it. Bo in April was stripped of his positions in the Politburo and the Party Central Committee, but he has not been charged with any crime.

He is thought to have been moved several times among government residences in Hebei province, Inner Mongolia and the outer suburbs of Beijing. Those reports could not be independently confirmed.

Choi Chi-yuk at South China Morning Post gives a detailed account of how Wang and Bo's closely linked careers:

Wang probably came to Bo's attention some time in 2003, when he was the secretary in the public security department of the Communist Party in Jinzhou City, in Liaoning, of which Bo had been appointed governor in 2001. Bo was appointed party secretary of , a megacity of 33 million people in 2007.

[...] After his apparent success against organised crime in Chongqing on Bo's behalf, Wang was fêted as a gangbuster by the common people, and took centre stage in public life. This celebrity came despite accusations by lawyers that he extracted confessions through torture and sacrificed due process in the pursuit of the so-called triad groups.

[...] In May last year, Bo promoted Wang to vice-mayor with responsibility for overseeing security while retaining his role as chief of police. As a result, Wang became seen as a rising political star who some day might play a key role in the national Public Security Ministry, when his mentor Bo assumed the high office to which he had seemed destined. The apparent improvement in law and order under Wang's iron-fisted crackdown had, in turn, boosted Bo's chances of winning a place on the party's all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, to be decided at the 18th national congress later this year.

Although Wang's sentencing was relatively lenient, some observers feel that he has become Bo's human shield. From Shi Jingtao and Choi Chi-yuk at South China Morning Post:

A source close to Wang's family told the South China Morning Post they believed Wang had been made a scapegoat for Bo.

The source commented: "Wang has apparently become a political victim because the government wants to protect the guy above him and avoid further humiliation."

[...] Wang's lawyer Wang Yuncai – not related to her client – confirmed to the Post that Bo was explicitly named during Wang's trial when the court heard how Bo slapped Wang. But the fact Bo's name was not mentioned at all by state media throughout the trials of Wang and Gu was seen by many, including Hong Kong analyst Johnny Lau Yui-siu, as a sure sign Bo will be treated leniently to avoid any repercussions on the imminent .

Others link Bo's case to the behind-the-scenes political jockeying between the factions of Hu Jintao and former leader Jiang Zemin. From Mark Mackinnon at The Globe and Mail:

Mr. Bo – a "princeling" whose father was a hero of the 1949 Communist Revolution – was once seen as a near-certainty to join the Standing Committee, and his downfall has exposed deep rifts in a party that normally excels at presenting at least a façade of unity. Mr. Bo's fellow princelings, and their chief patron, former president Jiang Zemin, are battling to limit damage from the scandal and to check the gains made by a rival faction of Communist Youth League alumni, a grouping headed by President Hu Jintao.

The Youth League faction is broadly considered more reform-minded, while the princelings are seen as more conservative about further opening the economy or any changes to China's one-party political system.

"It would show that Jiang Zemin and the conservatives still have substantial clout, if they can spare Bo Xilai," Prof. Lam said.

Yet amid the public debate over the leniency of Wang's sentencing, his family sees the conviction itself as showing a lack of justice in China. From Edward Wong at The New York Times:

"I feel desperate," his younger sister, Wang Fengying, said in a telephone interview. "It's too unfair."

Mr. Wang's lawyer, Wang Yuncai, who is not related to him, said in a telephone interview that the 15-year sentence was about what she expected. She said that Mr. Wang's wife, though, was stunned. "She was utterly shocked and unwilling to accept such a result," she said.

See more about Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai via CDT, and a chronicle of censorship of the case at Fei Chang Dao.

© Mengyu Dong for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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Official Expert Questions Heywood Cause of Death

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 02:34 AM PDT

One of China's most senior forensic scientists has challenged the official explanation for Neil Heywood's death in a now deleted blog post. , wife of former party chief , confessed to poisoning the British businessman with cyanide, but Wang argues that her account and the evidence as a whole fail to support this. From John Kennedy at the South China Morning Post:

"A serious lack of evidence exists," Wang writes, "to conclude that died of cyanide poisoning, as well as any supporting scientific basis."

"What I find extremely terrifying," she continues, is that missing in both the secret recording of Gu's confession to the and the court testimony provided by Gu and Zhang themselves, she claims, is any indication that Gu and Zhang witnessed a death that involved the characteristics of cyanide poisoning: the scream reflex that occurs during "lightning-fast" asphyxia, body spasms which would have been apparent as the cyanide reached Heywood's central nervous system, stupour that would have followed, or eventual cardiopulmonary arrest just prior to his death.

[…] Wang spends the second half of her post analysing Gu's mental condition, but strongly implies that Gu had been manipulated by for quite some time. The point comes at the very end of her post with a standalone question:

Who had the most to gain from Neil Heywood's death?

From Tania Branigan at The Guardian:

Wang has had an unusually high media profile in the past, lauded in the Chinese media as the first female forensic scientist to work for the country's highest level prosecution body.

[… I]t is extremely surprising that an official in her position would publicly question the verdict in such a politically sensitive case.

[…] She told the Guardian: "I don't care how long the blog is up there. I just want to tell people I feel humiliated.

"I think Chinese criminal doctors are not such idiots. I have done my duty and fulfilled my historical responsibility."

© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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