News » Politics » Capital Outflows Chime With China’s Bears

News » Politics » Capital Outflows Chime With China’s Bears


Capital Outflows Chime With China’s Bears

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 08:26 PM PDT

A poster advertising the renminbi (RMB) currency (Chinese yuan) in Hong Kong. Chinese wonder about the Yuan and its affect on the economy. (Laurent Fievet/AFP/Getty Images)

A poster advertising the renminbi (RMB) currency (Chinese yuan) in Hong Kong. Chinese wonder about the Yuan and its affect on the economy. (Laurent Fievet/AFP/Getty Images)

Following in the tracks of a highly regarded investment manager, many Chinese investors have begun to reduce their exposure to China's economy and shift their wealth overseas.

Mr. Jim Chanos predicted in a recent interview with Opalesque TV that China's economy will meet with disaster soon as bad debts throughout the economy but especially in the real-estate sector are set to unwind. He believes that the credit bubble in China makes the debt problems in Greece, Spain and the USA look minor by comparison.

Mr. Chanos manages the Kynikos (Greek for "cynic) hedge fund which specializes in finding overvalued and overpriced investments. He became well known when his fund took a large short position in Enron, whose share price collapsed as the consequence of accounting fraud. Seeing another great short-opportunity, he has been bearish on China for nearly two years, a profitable trade.

Mainland Chinese also seem to share Mr Chanos negative view on the Chinese economy as according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce data, investment capital is leaving the country.

From January to June of 2012, China invested $35.42 billion in 116 different countries and 2163 different projects, an increase of 48 percent compared to the same period last year. What shows up in the aggregated data is also confirmed by on the ground reports.

Yuan RMB Denominated Assets May Depreciate

An online report by the Economic Observer mentioned the experience of an investor named Liu Yun (pseudonym), who went back to China near the end of 2009 from Canada. Unable to find a good project to invest in, he bought eight different real estate properties in Beijing.

"Though the income and profit from these properties is decent," he said, "I will still sell some of them." He mentioned that he does not feel safe keeping his assets in mainland China and ultimately wishes to keep only one property in China, saying, "Many mainlanders I know are transferring their wealth overseas, feeling that RMB-denominated properties are not very secure and that the future looks gloomy."

The Economic Observer report also cited a currency trader who senses that the market is expecting the RMB to weaken. The RMB is pegged to the US dollar and given the trade surplus normally the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has to sell RMB to keep the exchange rate low. This helps Chinese exporters compete on world markets. This time, however, China's central bank took actions to stop the RMB from depreciating and the recent reduction in China's foreign reserves has to do with China's central bank selling dollars and buying RMB to support the currency.

Dollar-Buying Trend

Across the table from the PBOC on the other side of the trade are many ordinary citizens and businesses. A worker at a China Construction Bank branch in Beijing said, "Currently US dollars are in high demand, for the past few days, any currency exchange in excess of US $2000 needs to have a prior reservation made."

"Last year, we tried to sell insurance products with rates provided in RMB, it was very popular, this year sales are not going well."
A product manager at an insurance firm said, "Some people at a foreign bank told me, financial products in US dollars are selling well."

This trend of abandoning RMB for dollars is even more obvious among businesses.

"The typical financing, payment, or balance transfers can be used to move cash, and overseas mergers and acquisitions are very popular," said an insider who wished to remain anonymous. "Especially in second or third level businesses below the state owned enterprises, there are lots of overseas mergers and acquisitions."

The most obvious way to circumvent the controls is to have the Chinese party provide financing to the foreign partner, thereby transferring funds out of China through this company.

These arrangements are necessary as China keeps tight capital controls to manage the economy. The most obvious way to circumvent the controls is to have the Chinese party provide financing to the foreign partner, thereby transferring funds out of China through this company.

Secondly, some intermediary organization can provide fake capital verification documents for foreign investments in China, directly creating overvalued foreign investments. These overvalued foreign investments can be transferred back overseas as profits or liquidation.

In addition, some Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) financial institutions can directly invest in overseas markets. By buying the unused quota from these QDII institutions, money can also be moved outside of China.

The last method is via special services provided by multi-national banks. For example, the Singapore branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) offers credit facilities secured by standby letters of credit from ICBC branches in China. Some banks also offer credit facilities overseas secured by deposits in a bank branch in China.

Latest Data from the Central Bank of China Shows Capital Outflows

These moves are also register in PBOC data and some analysts are starting to worry as during the second quarter of 2012, China's trade surplus decreased by a total of $68.7 billion.

Hongyuan Securities' chief analyst, Fan Wei, warned in a research report that "currency fluctuations will seriously affect asset values in China."

Adding that reduction of the trade surplus to the $30 billion of direct foreign investment out of China shows a capital outflow of over $100 billion.

—Fan Wei

"Adding that reduction of the trade surplus to the $30 billion of direct foreign investment out of China shows a capital outflow of over $100 billion," Fan wrote. "This will force domestic asset allocation to take into consideration the flow of capital, and the changes in exchange rates."

These $ 100 billion could be just the beginning, however: Political Science Professor at Northwestern University Victor Shih, estimates that the richest Chinese families have aggregated over $5 trillion in wealth. So if a large percentage of that wealth needs to be converted to dollars, then even China's US$3.2 trillion foreign reserve isn't large enough to cover for it. This is especially so as many of these people may be corrupt officials who have something to hide which dramatically reduces the availability of dollars for these illegal transactions.

Read the original Chinese report.

chinareports@epochtimes.com

The Epoch Times publishes in 35 countries and in 19 languages. Subscribe to our e-newsletter.

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Hong Kong Paper Kowtowing to Beijing, Say Journalists

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 07:32 AM PDT

A member of Hong Kong's Democratic Party holds a placard in protest outside the offices of South China Morning Post (SCMP) newspaper in Hong Kong. Twenty-three former SCMP journalists have written an open letter, urging the publication not to clamp down on press freedom. (Anthony Dickson/Getty Images)

A member of Hong Kong's Democratic Party holds a placard in protest outside the offices of South China Morning Post (SCMP) newspaper in Hong Kong. Twenty-three former SCMP journalists have written an open letter, urging the publication not to clamp down on press freedom. (Anthony Dickson/Getty Images)

Hong Kong's largest English newspaper, South China Morning Post (SCMP,) is kowtowing to Beijing pressure, according to 23 journalists who have written an open letter to the newspaper's executive director.

The journalists have all been formerly employed by SCMP, but now work in other countries, including the UK, Australia, Japan and Singapore.

The group expressed concern that the Post has been increasingly culling important China-related news and replacing Western journalists with Beijing colleagues.

The letter was addressed to Hui Kuok, the Post's executive director. She is the youngest child of Malaysian sugar tycoon Robert Kuok, who bought a controlling interest in the newspaper in 1993. She is responsible for the media group's operations and businesses.

In the letter, the journalists expressed distress at the editorial decisions made by newly appointed editor-in-chief Wang Xiangwei. Wang took the new job in February this year, after working for the mainland state newspaper China Daily.

Paul Mooney, one of the under signatories to the letter, was recently fired by Wang on what he says were political grounds. In an opinion piece published by The Epoch Times, Mr Mooney said dozens of his China-related story proposals were either ignored or knocked by Wang.

The Asia Sentinel reports of two other journalists who lost their jobs at SCMP. Both Willy Lam and Jasper Becker, bureau chiefs in Beijing, were fired before Wang took up the job.

"The South China Morning Post has never been a radical publication, but it has served the people of Hong Kong for 100 years by providing them with accurate and timely information," the letter said, according to the Sentinel. "It is now widely believed that the paper's main priority is no longer to continue this fine tradition, but to please the authorities in Beijing."

The controversy over SCMP's change of editorial direction broke in June, when one of its editors was reported to have openly questioned Wang's work ethic. The Sentinel reports of Mr Price scrutinising the decision to reduce a major story on the suspicious death of Tiananmen dissident Li Wangyang in a Hunan hospital to a brief.

Price sent Wang an e-mail saying: "A lot of people are wondering why we nipped the Li Wangyang story last night. It does seem rather odd. Any chance you can shed some light on the matter?" That generated a series of e-mails during which Wang said: "I don't have to explain to you anything. I made the decision and I stand by it. If you don't like it, you know what to do," reports the Sentinel.

Wang later sought to justify his decision to the staff by saying the story over Li's death had received little or no coverage on CCTV, the Chinese regime's stated-owned television news service.

"The latest dispute over the curtailed coverage of the Li Wangyang story has angered a great many of the Post's traditional readers and supporters," the former Post journalists said in the letter. "It suggests that the charges of the paper's critics are justified. We understand that news judgments have to be made in haste and occasional errors are to be expected.

"Some of the explanations for the Li Wangwang decision suggest, though, that a change in policy has taken place. The idea that the story needed to be downplayed because it had received little or no coverage on CCTV is unworthy of the Post's traditions as an independent and enterprising newspaper. CCTV no doubt has a role as a source of information. If used as an indicator of news values it is a source of ignorance.

"We are concerned by all this not only because we were once happy and proud to work for the Post, and do not like to see its reputation deteriorate, but also because the newspaper has historically been an important civic resource for the people of Hong Kong. It will be a serious public loss if the newspaper continues to go downhill.

"We urge you to ensure that stories are evaluated on the basis of their interest to Hong Kong readers. We urge you to ensure that Post journalists are able to work according to an explicit and understood editorial policy.

After a number of attempts Mr Wang could not be reached for comment.

The Epoch Times publishes in 35 countries and in 19 languages. Subscribe to our e-newsletter.

Click www.ept.ms/ccp-crisis to read about the most recent developments in the ongoing crisis within the Chinese communist regime. In this special topic, we provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation. Get the RSS feed. Get the new interactive Timeline of Events. Who are the Major Players? Chinese Regime in Crisis RSS Feed

China's State-Led Forced Organ Harvesting

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:56 PM PDT

A new book on forced organ harvesting in China has recently be published. In this China Focus we speak to one of the contributors to the book, and to the spokesman for Doctors Against Forced Organ Harvesting about what's behind this illegal practice.

New City in Troubled Waters

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 04:40 PM PDT

Beijing on Tuesday established a new administrative city in the South China Sea where it also plans to station a military garrison to defend its claims on the disputed waters, drawing protests from Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Chinese flag was raised and the national anthem played at a ceremony to mark the creation of the new 1,000-resident Sansha city on Woody Island, the largest of the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam.

Sansha, the new prefecture-level municipality under Hainan province, will administer the Paracel archipelago as well as the nearby Spratly Islands and Macclesfield Bank, the official Xinhua news agency said.

The move strengthens Beijing's foothold in the resource-rich South China Sea, portions of which are also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, and raises tensions in the region where experts have warned of the possibility of armed conflicts erupting.

Luo Baoyu, the Hainan secretary for the ruling Chinese Communist Party, said at the ceremony that Sansha, a settlement supplied with food and water by ship, will help China assert its control over the sea and promote its economic interests there.

"The provincial government will be devoted to turning the city into an important base to safeguard China's sovereignty and serve marine resource development," he said, Xinhua reported.

schinasea-305
China's territorial claim to the South China Sea includes two disputed island chains.

Objections

Sansha will also host troops as part of a new military garrison, according to China's Central Military Command Friday, escalating territorial spats with Vietnam and the Philippines.

The garrison command will be responsible for managing the city's national defense, mobilizing military reserves, and carrying out military operations, China's state media reported.

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi told Agence France-Presse on Tuesday that the plan for the garrison "violates international law, seriously violates Vietnam's sovereignty... and is invalid."

He said China must revoke its "wrongdoings" and urged "friendly and cooperative" relations in order to "maintain peace and stability" in the region.

Vietnam has faced off with China over Beijing's detention of Vietnamese fishermen and its opening of oil and gas lots to international bidders in the disputed waters.

In the Philippines, the department of foreign affairs summoned China's Ambassador to the Philippines Ma Keqing on Tuesday to protest against the garrison announcement.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said the Philippines had expressed "grave concern" and "strong protest" over China's actions in the Paracels, the Manila Standard newspaper reported.

"We hope that China, as a responsible country, will exercise self-restraint on the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability in the region," he said.

The Philippines became embroiled in a standoff with China at the Scarborough Shoal earlier this year, with both sides sending ships to the area after Manila accused Beijing of poaching in its exclusive economic zone.

On Monday, Philippine president Benigno Aquino said in an annual state of the nation address to parliament that the country would be upgrading its military capabilities in the South China Sea.

"If someone enters your yard and told you he owns it, would you allow that?" he said.

China's actions have also drawn reactions from the U.S., where senior senator John McCain on Tuesday called the planned garrison in Sansha "unnecessarily provocative" and urged a multilateral solution to the overlapping claims in the waters.

'New heights'

China's expansion of Sansha comes as long-simmering tensions over the South China Sea disputes reached "new heights," according to a new report by the International Crisis Group released Wednesday.

The think tank warned that tensions have grown particularly explosive since divisions over the territorial claims prompted the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to postpone for the first time in 45 years its customary joint statement at the conclusion of its annual ministerial talks two weeks ago.

"As long as ASEAN fails to produce a cohesive South China Sea policy, a binding set of rules on the handling of disputed claims cannot be enforced," said Paul Quinn-Judge, the International Crisis Group's acting Asia director.

"Without a consensus on resolution mechanisms, tensions in the South China Sea can easily spill over into armed conflict," he said.

Reported by Rachel Vandenbrink.

Death toll went up to 111 due to recent floods in China

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 04:20 PM PDT

Beijing, China – According to the newest statement from Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs on July 24th, the heavy rainstorm in China since July 20th has caused 111 deaths and 47 missing.

Natural disasters caused by the rainstorm like hails, floods and landslides wreaked havoc

across China, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei,Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and a number of other regions in northern, central and southwest China.

The statistics showed that 9.20 million people from 101 cities and 353 counties in 22 provinces were affected by rainstorm. 1.18 million people have been relocated and evacuated to shelters. Over 54,000 houses collapsed and 144,000 were damaged in different degrees.

Natural disasters occurred to China in 2012 affected 110 million people in 31 provinces including Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. A total number of 721 deaths and 118 missing in the disasters while over 8.81 million people have been relocated and assisted with living essentials. FMN

Chinese Leadership Remains Silent on Deadly Beijing Storm

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 04:03 PM PDT

The 17th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress on Oct. 21, 2007 in Beijing.  Chinese Communist Party's top leadership refrained from making any statements about the disaster during their appearance at a meeting on Monday. (Guang Niu/Getty Images)

The 17th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress on Oct. 21, 2007 in Beijing.  Chinese Communist Party's top leadership refrained from making any statements about the disaster during their appearance at a meeting on Monday. (Guang Niu/Getty Images)

In the wake of Beijing's heaviest rain storm in at least six decades, members of the Chinese Communist Party's top leadership refrained from making any statements about the disaster during their appearance at a meeting on Monday.

On July 23, all nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee gathered in Beijing for the opening ceremony of a meeting for provincial and ministerial level cadres. China's leader Hu Jintao delivered a speech at the ceremony, but did not mention the Beijing storm. 

This past Saturday, a massive rain storm hit the nation's capital, flooding the city. Beijing authorities claimed that 37 died in the storm, but survivors and eyewitnesses expressed doubt over the official figures, posting their first-hand accounts on Sina Weibo, China's microblogging service. 

In the following days, the Party leadership remained silent over the Beijing disaster. It is speculated that some high-level officials have already traveled to the Beidaihe District in Hebei Province, where the leadership retreats every summer and decides on major political issues behind closed doors. The next generation of the communist leadership is likely to take shape at Beidaihe before the official handover at the 18th National People's Congress later this year.

According to Washington D.C.-based rights group Chinese Human Rights Defenders (CHRD), the Beidaihe meetings began on July 20 and will go on until Aug. 20. Armed police are already lining the streets leading to tourist attraction sites, with any visitors questioned and passing cars inspected.

Read original Chinese article.

chinareports@epochtimes.com

The Epoch Times publishes in 35 countries and in 19 languages. Subscribe to our e-newsletter. 

Click www.ept.ms/ccp-crisis to read about the most recent developments in the ongoing crisis within the Chinese communist regime. In this special topic, we provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation. Get the RSS feed. Get the new interactive Timeline of Events. Who are the Major Players? Chinese Regime in Crisis RSS Feed

Thousands Rally at Taiwan Presidential Building

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 03:20 PM PDT

Nearly 3,000 Falun Gong practitioners gathered at Ketagalan Boulevard on July 23 to ask Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to take action to rescue Chung Ting-pang. (The Epoch Times)

Nearly 3,000 Falun Gong practitioners gathered at Ketagalan Boulevard on July 23 to ask Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to take action to rescue Chung Ting-pang. (The Epoch Times)

Three thousand Falun Gong practitioners gathered before the Taiwan Presidential Building on July 23 calling for the return of Taiwanese Falun Gong practitioner Chung Ting-pang, who was abducted in China last month.

Members of Chung's family, representatives from numerous nongovernmental organizations, and 3,000 Falun Gong practitioners gathered on Ketagalan Boulevard with thousands of yellow ribbons. Together they repeatedly chanted their plea: "Please help us, President Ma, to secure the quick release of Chung Ting-pang."

Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa, is a meditation practice based on the principles of truthfulness, compassion, and tolerance. Then head of the Chinese Communist Party Jiang Zemin launched a campaign in July 1999 to eliminate the practice, fearing its popularity.

Chung Ai, daughter of the abducted businessman, spoke at the press conference. With tears in her eyes, she said her father had done nothing wrong, and he had not committed any crimes. "He is a great father, please help him, President Ma," she said. Her father's favorite American classic song is "Bridge Over Troubled Water," so she asked everyone to help build such a bridge to rescue her father.

Chung Ai recently went to Washington, D.C., asking for international support. Chung Ting-pang's abduction has been reported on by international media, such as the BBC and Voice of America (VOA).

Chung Ai, daughter of Chung Ting-pang, gave a speech at the July 23 event. (The Epoch Times)

Chung Ai, daughter of Chung Ting-pang, gave a speech at the July 23 event. (The Epoch Times)

Yang Xian-hong, President of the Taiwan Association for China Human Rights, called on President Ma to save himself, saying, "It is not he who comes to the rescue of this Taiwanese citizen, but the Americans. Now, the presidential approval rating of President Ma is at an all time low of 15 percent, and it looks like it is going to drop further."

Theresa Chu, a lawyer and the spokesperson for the legal team working for the Taiwan Falun Gong Association, said that the president had not met with the family. Instead, Mr. Huang from the public relations office accepted the family's original petition in person. The petition made the following requests:

• President Ma must immediately demand that the Chinese government release Chung Ting-pang free of any charges.

• The president must arrange to immediately allow the family to call Chung Ting-pang.

• The presidential office must establish a task force for the sole purpose of rescuing Chung Ting-pang. This task force would directly report to the president to resolve any cross-strait issues. Members of the human rights committee should actively participate in the rescue efforts and report the status to the family daily.

• President Ma must publicly tell the Chinese government and the Taiwanese people about his administration's determination to secure the release of Chung Ting-pang.

Professor Chang Ching-Hsi, chairman of the Taiwan Falun Dafa Association (TFDA) said Chung Ting-pang could not be reached for the 37 days since his abduction.

Thousands of yellow silk ribbons hang at Ketagalan Boulevard on July 23. Chung Ai, daughter of Chung Ting-pang, wrote on one ribbon, "Dad, I will rescue you back to home." (Lin Shijie/The Epoch Times)

Thousands of yellow silk ribbons hang at Ketagalan Boulevard on July 23. Chung Ai, daughter of Chung Ting-pang, wrote on one ribbon, "Dad, I will rescue you back to home." (Lin Shijie/The Epoch Times)

"The real reason behind this abduction is his practice of Falun Gong," Chang said. "Currently, there have been thousands of people supporting the ongoing mission for his release, and this rescue mission will never cease until Chung Ting-pang is safely returned to Taiwan."

Peng Bai-xian, secretary general of Lee Teng-hui Association for Democracy, emphasized that the case relating to Chung is not an isolated one. He believes President Ma and the Foreign Ministry must regard the security of life and property of any Taiwanese person traveling in China because the Taiwan and Chinese governments have established a program for it.

"If the protection of a Taiwanese citizen like Chung Ting-pang cannot be guaranteed, I have some serious doubt about President Ma's claim that the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) would bring cross-strait development of peace and prosperity," Peng said.

William Kao, president of Victims of Investment in China Association, pointed out that approximately 1,000 Taiwanese businessmen in China have been imprisoned on trumped up charges. Kao expressed his gratitude to Falun Gong practitioners.

Kao said, "I am quite pleased that so many Falun Gong practitioners stand here today, which means that more and more Taiwanese people have come to be aware of the dire situation in China."

Read original Chinese article

chinareports@epochtimes.com

The Epoch Times publishes in 35 countries and in 19 languages. Subscribe to our e-newsletter. 

Click www.ept.ms/ccp-crisis to read about the most recent developments in the ongoing crisis within the Chinese communist regime. In this special topic, we provide readers with the necessary context to understand the situation. Get the RSS feed. Get the new interactive Timeline of Events. Who are the Major Players? Chinese Regime in Crisis RSS Feed

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