Blogs » Society » ‘Demystifying The Chinese Economy’: Carnegie Endowment

Blogs » Society » ‘Demystifying The Chinese Economy’: Carnegie Endowment


‘Demystifying The Chinese Economy’: Carnegie Endowment

Posted: 22 May 2012 03:18 PM PDT

In early May, the Carnegie Endowment held 'Demystifying the Chinese Economy,' with speakers: Justin Lin, chief economist at the World Bank; Vikram Nehru formerly of the World Bank and a lead author of 'China 2030,' now at Carnegie; and Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute.

(Note that there's a screen below the video where you can choose the speaker you want to hear.)

Here's a description:

Since opening up to the world in 1979, China's economy has grown by an astonishing 10 percent, on average, in real terms every year. In a matter of years—or at most two decades—it will likely surpass the U.S. economy in size. But many observers have pointed out that China's recent "rise" is more aptly deemed a "return" to the preeminence it enjoyed before the eighteenth century. How did China decline from one of the most technologically advanced countries before the Industrial Revolution to one of the poorest in the following two-and-a-half centuries? To what extent has China become a market-based economy, and what lies ahead?

New Political Party Mounts Democracy Challenge To CCP?

Posted: 22 May 2012 11:30 AM PDT

A possible emblem for the Chinese Scientist Liberal Democratic Party

By Valentina Luo

It looks like someone not only watched last year's The Founding of a Party, but actually paid attention. A group of Chinese scientists are rumored to have "founded" the Chinese Scientist Liberal Democratic Party [中国科学家自由民主党], news of which we first noticed in the Chinese edition of Epoch Times on May 1.

The Epoch Times, as parlance goes, is an "overseas dissident publication" that makes claims which are often difficult to prove, and we wouldn't give much credence to this story if not for the rate at which censors are deleting posts about it. A thread on Baidu's forum, in which netizens were relatively supportive of the idea of a second party, now returns the message, "Very sorry, your requested forum doesn't exist." Here's another Baidu forum on the subject that's now gone. A page about the SLDP (or whatever the acronym is supposed to be) on Baidu's Wiki-like section, Zhidao, has also been expunged. And don't even think about finding it on Xici.net or Kdnet.com – finding it anymore, that is.

However, there are still traces on the Hong Kong-headquartered portal China.com, specifically this thread from yesterday afternoon (currently with nearly 19,000 views) titled, "China discussion: Dawn of a new era is upon us! Reporting big news!" The top post: "Beijing intelligentsia recently founded the Chinese Scientist Liberal Democratic Party! It's enabled me to see the dawn of a new era of Chinese politics!" One of the commenters wrote, "There are eight parties [under the CPC], what's the harm in another?" Most, however, lean toward apathy — perhaps why the thread is allowed to exist.

Democracy, protection of citizens' freedom and a government with separation of powers are among the new party's core values, according to the now-deleted Baidu Zhidao page, and "its new charter will be released soon," said one of the founders, the pseudonymous Liu Ye [刘烨] (he is quoted as "Liu Yi" [刘义] in other places). Are these stirrings the sign of political troublemakers rising from their murk, or, as it were, nothing at all?

Around 30 young scientists from the Beijing-based China Academy of Science, who pursue social justice and advocate democratic reform in China, founded the party, which seeks to turn over the CCP's "dictatorship" and set up a constitutional system with a peaceful approach, sources said. [Ed's note: isn't that what we are supposed to have already?] And all this despite a front-page headline in the Global Times last year that read: "No Need for Other Parties: CCP" (repeat, this wasn't a China Daily Show headline; we laughed about it, but now can't seem to find it online).

Interestingly, Minister of Civil Affairs of China Li Liguo announced in a press release on May 8 that, "There will be reforms on the organization registration system in the future… and registration for human rights and political organizations will be managed equally." It is not known if this announcement was in any way related to CCP awareness of the upstart party and thus an attempt to crap in their salad.

Briefly, some context: there are eight minor parties under the Communist Party of China, with the youngest one being the Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang, founded in 1948. Again, that's youngest. There has not been a new party in this country since 1948, so officials are predictably wary about people who try to break this, ahem, stability. Crucially, the two questions we are unable to answer are: Who are these scientist founders? and, Why does anyone want to start a new party in China? Slightly modifying the words of that China.com commenter: There are eight parties under the CPC, what's the point in another?

We confess doubt as to our ability to bring you further updates. After all, despite the supposed success of the state-backed movie, the tagline of The Founding of a Party, as far as we could tell, was, "Don't try this at home." Should any information leak through the cracks, though, we'll let you know.

(With additional reporting by RFH, Tao, Alicia.)

Underwater Wedding In China Features Mermaids, Dolphins, And Spitting Walruses

Posted: 22 May 2012 10:58 AM PDT

I think the top featured comment on YouTube from TheOmerShow sums up how I feel about the two pairs of couples who tied the knot at a marine park in China:

Easy
Medium
Hard
Hardcore
Fucking Hard!!
Chuck Norris
Impossible
Asian

Youku video for those in China after the jump. (H/T Alicia)

OECD Sees China’s Economy Regaining Momentum

Posted: 22 May 2012 06:34 AM PDT

The OECD's latest economic outlook sees the slowdown in the growth of China's economy reversing later this year as fiscal stimulus and monetary easing kick in. It forecasts that GDP growth for the year will be 8.2%, down from 2011′s … Continue reading

Unplugging from China

Posted: 21 May 2012 11:04 PM PDT

Rising coal prices and unfavourable policies have forced foreign power companies – once eager investors – to leave the country. Chen Nan reports.

Apparent preparations by US energy giant AES Corporation to withdraw from China have raised eyebrows lately. Earlier this year, it emerged that the firm – one of the world's biggest independent power generators – had engaged an investment bank to sell all or part of its business in China for US$300 million to US$400 million (1.9 billion yuan to 2.5 billion yuan). Then in April, China's Energy magazine revealed that Yangcheng International Power Company, operator of the last Chinese thermal power plant under AES control, was up for sale.

"AES plans to sell off its Chinese assets as a whole and quit the Chinese market – it's common industry knowledge," said Lin Boqiang, director of the Center of China Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University. "Other power companies that arrived at the same time have all gone already – AES fought on for longest, the government should give it a medal." If AES does go, it will leave France's EDF as the only foreign power company operating in China, where it focuses on nuclear power.

Even before China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, its thermal power sector was open to foreign firms. In 1993, AES became the first US power company to land on Chinese shores. At that time, it operated mainly through joint ventures with local or national power companies, building power plants and signing contracts with customers that specified minimum electricity purchases.

Back then, China's power markets were short of capacity, money and technology and there was a grave lack of investment. Provinces including Shandong, Fujian and Guangdong offered guaranteed sales and prices, and pulled in foreign investors with promised fixed rate returns of up to 15%, even 20%.

Investors flocked in, and by the end of 1998 there were as many as 39 foreign power companies operating in China. According to the State Power Economic Research Institute, foreign-backed plants accounted for 14.5% of total capacity at their peak.

An insider from the China Electricity Council recalled that, while state regulations of the time mandated a period of three years to build a 600 megawatt thermal power plant, many projects were up and running within just 20 months. "One day earlier was one day richer," the source said.

But by 1998, the flood of foreign investment had caused a significant electricity surplus and government policy shifted from encouragement to restraint.

Following orders from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planner, local governments started doing away with their policies on guaranteed returns, while generating hours and purchase prices specified in the original joint-venture contracts were no longer guaranteed. As one journalist put it: "China is rolling up the red carpet for foreign power companies."

"How are you going to get that 15% rate of return? You need to be generating electricity for 5,500 hours a year," explained the source from the China Electricity Council. "Around the year 2000, in many places the electricity generated was too low to satisfy the original agreements. Some foreign companies went to court, but in the end most got nowhere."

Wu Chenming was vice president of AES China at the time, and said in an interview: "We hope both our Chinese partners and customers will welcome our investment as they once did, and fulfil existing contracts." The Chinese government retorted that setting fixed rates of return was unfair and would be unusual in any nation.

Despite the sudden change, AES still believed in the potential of the Chinese market and was confident profits could be made. It opted to cut down on the size of its operations, but to remain in China.

The Yangcheng No. 3 Generator, which fired up in 2001, was the last to be built by AES. As of February 2008, the company had only four thermal power plants in China: Yangcheng, Jiaozuo, Aixi and Wuhu. In that year, it sold off its 70% stake in the Jiaozuo AES Wanfang Power Company.

Even so, a small number of optimistic new entrants came into the market – such as Peak Pacific, formed by US firm Constellation Energy and the World Bank. This company arrived in China in 2002, and by 2004 had built seven thermal power plants, making it one of the five largest foreign power firms in the country. But more voted with their feet and quit the Chinese market. France's Alstom sold a 40% stake in Guangxi Laibin Power Plant B. American's Mirant, the world's third largest energy company, sold its stake in Shandong Guodian and Guangdong Shajiao.

In just four years, from 1998 to 2002, the percentage of foreign investment in fixed assets in the Chinese power sector plummeted from 14.3% to 7.5%.

From 2002, the price of coal rose steadily, but government controls on electricity pricing meant power companies could not pass the extra costs on to customers. In 2004, the cost of coal, which accounts for 50% of total generating costs, leapt from 100 yuan (US$15.8) a tonne at the start of the year to 300 yuan (US$47.4) a tonne in winter – but there was only a single adjustment in the price of electricity, an increase of 0.007 yuan per kilowatt hour in the middle of the year.

In 2004, four of Peak Pacific's seven plants suffered losses, while the others scraped a profit thanks to being next door to coal mines. The company's operating income in China dropped 20% year on year. Chief executive Robert Anderson said shareholders started asking "why have other companies left China, but you're still there?" In the end, Peak Pacific also left.

By 2003, foreign firms were leaving China in droves, selling off their stakes in the power plants they had operated for around a decade. In March 2003, US firm Sithe Energies sold off its 40% stake in Wenzhou Telluride Power Company, and then its stakes in Guangdong Dongguan Huojie Power Plant as well as the Hebei Tangshan Thermal Power Plant and the Puqi Sithe Power Generating Company. In March 2004, American Electric Power sold its 70% stake in Henan Nanyang Pushan Power Plant.

On January 5, 2005, Siemens announced plans to sell a 40% stake in Hebei Hanfeng Power Plant, along with stakes in 16 other power plants. In March, Constellation Energy split off from its Chinese operations.

By 2004, foreign energy companies accounted for just 5% of fixed asset ownership in the sector. The NDRC made a second attempt to link coal and power prices, ruling that "when the price of coal for power generating has risen by 5% or more in the last six months, grid power prices will be adjusted six months later." But there was a condition: the power companies would have to absorb 30% of the increase. "We've never seen anything like it anywhere in the world," complained Peak Pacific chief executive Anderson.

But not all power companies have been victims of pricing mechanims. For coal, China has a dual system: the market-economy and the planned economy. Only state-owned power plants have access to planned-economy coal, and coal mines struggle to fulfil contracts. Private and foreign companies are left purchasing fuel on the open market.

As foreign firms flee, state-owned power companies have demonstrated their immunity to high costs – thanks to state-controlled contracts which price coal at 17% to 50% below market prices. "If private, local or foreign power companies could do the same as the five big state-owned firms and just offload bad assets and obtain funding, they would do so straight away," said Lin Boqiang.


Chen Nan is a reporter at
Southern Weekend, where this article was first published.

Homepage image by Rose Robinson

Top Ten Search List (May 22)

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:58 AM PDT

Here's the top 10 real-time search list for today, recorded at 12:44 pm

1. 立交桥露泡沫 Lìjiāoqiáo lù pàomò – "Overpass Shows Signs of Bubbles": This morning Weibo user "Misha8988" posted pictures of a large crack in the railing of a Qingdao highway overpass; the images seem to reveal that the bridge, while concrete on the surface, is in fact made of styrofoam-like bubble filling. The Weibo community is talking safety concerns. Here's the story in Chinese.

2. 公务员擦皮鞋 gōngwùyuán cā píxié – "Civil Servants Shine Shoes": The term "civil servant" was taken extremely literally when, on May 15th in Shenzhen, over 8,000 municipal government workers took to the streets to shine the shoes of city residents, free of charge. (They also offered free haircuts, wine tastings, food safety verification, home appliance repairs, jewelry appraisals, and free photo printing). Netizens are accusing the city government of showing off and throwing away money on a PR scheme when it should be getting to work. Here's the story in Chinese.

3. 援建中学被拆毁 yuánjiàn zhōngxué bèi chāihuǐ – Pictures are circulating online today of a 3,000 square meter middle school building in Mianyang, Sichuan province that is slanted to the side, mid-demolition, and surrounded by advertisement-bearing construction fences. The construction of the "Red Bud" school, which opened a year and a half ago to 300 relocated students, was made possible largely due to donations from Hong Kong's department of education, as part of a voluntary aid initiative following the devastation of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. It appears that the Mianyang government and whichever developers are collaborating with it recently decided it would be a good idea to knock down the newly flourishing educational institution to make way for a shopping center and apartment complex. Which makes sense, because you can't build stuff in a vacant lot when it's…not one. Here's the story in Chinese.

4. 李洁娥之死 Lǐ Jiéé zhī sǐ – On May 9th, in another tragedy of forced housing demolition, Guangzhou resident Li Jie'e jumped from the fifth story of her apartment building after a long drawn-out confrontation with the authorities during which she steadfastly refused to move out of her home of over twenty years. Netizens continue to debate the issue of government abuse of eminent domain as they mourn its casualties. Here's the story in Chinese.

5. 康师傅排挤门 Kāngshīfù páijǐ mén – A starchy battle has broken out in northeast China, where Taiwanese instant noodle brand Master Kong (owned by Tingyi Holdings) has been attempting to box its competitor Uni-President out of the mainland market. Here's the story in Chinese.

6. 我没养私生女 wǒ méi yǎng sīshēng nǚ – A woman in Sichuan by the name of Gan Huiling recently came forward to the online community, posting extensive evidence on Baidu's Tieba bulletin board to verify her claim that years ago she was forced to adopt the illegitimate daughter of a local government official and his mistress. Liang Liehong, secretary of the district committee of Wutongqiao in Leshan, Sichuan province, persuaded Gan's then husband to coerce her into registering a residence permit for Liang's secret daughter under her own name, giving the child her own legal identity such that she would be able to emigrate later on. Here's the story in Chinese.

7. 做好人成本高 zuò hǎorén chéngběn gāo – "Being a Good Person: Too Costly": In an online survey conducted by the China Youth Daily's social research center, 78.3% of netizens polled said they felt morality in Chinese society was on the decline, and that good people suffer for being good. Additionally, 71.6% believed that a person who commits a random act of kindness will be laughed at or suspected of ulterior motives, while 61.3% said that China lacked the policies to encourage kind behavior and citizens lacked the motivation to take it upon themselves. Here's the story in Chinese.

8. 嫌疑人呕吐死 xiányírén ǒutù sǐ – Police in Henan have reported that a criminal suspect who was being detained at the provincial public security bureau "vomited to death" when he choked on his own spittle after contracting a sudden illness. The detainee's family, backed by a large online following, is questioning the stated cause of death as suspicion mounts that he died under torture intended to extract a confession. Here's the story in Chinese.

9. 袁嘉敏 Yuán Jiāmǐn – Candy Yuen, winner of "Miss Photogenic" at the 2009 Miss Hong Kong pageant, is getting a lot of attention today for 1. her know-how when it comes to accessorizing summer jewelry and 2. rumors that she was recently on a date with married Hong Kong TVB actor Michael Tse. Here's the story in Chinese.

10. 吴英 Wú Yīng – Yesterday, the death sentence of Wu Ying—an entrepreneur from Dongyang, Zhejiang province and formerly the sixth-richest woman in China—was reduced to death with a two-year reprieve, which will likely translate into a life prison sentence after two years. Wu was initially convicted of financial fraud and sentenced to death in 2009, a ruling that was upheld earlier this year. Here's the story in Chinese.

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Baidu predicts delivering profits to app developers within two years

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:09 AM PDT

According to U.S. marketing firm App Promo's latest research report, up to 59 percent of iOS developers cannot make ends meet, and 80 percent of developers are not able to operate independently. Android platform developers are not much better off: Data published by China's renowned mobile app platform 91net shows that the top 100 ranking apps on the Android platform already make up for 48 percent of total user downloads. Most Android developers have little hope to make profits.

Currently the average profit expected for app products in China is nowhere close to impressive, and yet marketing costs are approaching the "international standard." The cost of acquiring one non-paying app user has gone up to 1.4 yuan, leading many developers in the China market to see the mobile app's industry as a game for the wealthy.

Baidu's General Manager of Mobile Cloud Operations Li Mingyuan recently announced that Baidu hopes to realize profits for more than half of the app developers on the Baidu mobile platform and establish a dependable clear-cut business model, all within two years time.

There are reasons for Baidu's confidence on this front. For one, Baidu has an enormous data advantage. Between October 2009 and October 2011, Baidu's mobile search traffic rose dramatically—by 17 times, in fact. Additionally, more than 10 million mobile searches for information and applications are now being conducted on the Baidu search engine daily, providing app developers with more than enough room to grow, expand, and gain traction with mobile users.

Baidu's second advantage is its strong powerful data and technology platform. Baidu has 100PB to 1000PB in data volume, and will be integrating all of this data as well as sharing its APIs with developers. Since March of this year, "Baidu Cloud" has been providing developers with free cloud storage, applications engine and various other platform support, in addition to support tools and procedures for all phases of applications development. According to Baidu's Chief Cloud Architect Lin Shiding, Baidu's online applications service can help developers decrease applications development costs by 30 percent, and shorten the development period by 40 percent. Not long ago, popular image editing application Meituxiuxiu and finance software Suishouji have all integrated onto the Baidu Personal Cloud Storage and made available via the Baidu mobile platform. A representative from Meituxiuxiu said: "After integrating on the Baidu cloud storage, Meitu users can now enjoy free cloud storage space, and easily synchronize PC and mobile terminals through Meituxiuxiu. This has significantly decreased our costs while improving user experience in a big way, which is a very exciting development for us."

In addition, Baidu's mature business model and revenue-sharing scheme with the entire industry chain provides a high level of security for developers. At present, the Baidu Developer Center (developer.baidu.com) has already attracted more than 60,000 developers and more than 80,000 mobile applications. Through the Baidu Developer Center's four major service systems: development, operation, channel marketing and monetization service, Baidu has created a one-stop comprehensive solutions plan for developers while utilizing its open technology, data statistics, marketing channels and development tools, in hopes to help developers through the challenges and difficulties that come with applications development.

Baidu's Vice President of Engineering Wang Jing says: "In 2011, Baidu provided developers with more than 100 million in shared-revenue. In 2012 we expect this figure to at least triple."

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That Yang Rui apology in full

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:17 AM PDT

The following is the full transcript of the apology issued by CCTV host Yang Rui concerning his remarks over "foreign trash" and the subsequent reaction.

Flipping the script: U.S. cracks down on illegal Chinese teachers

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:40 AM PDT

Flipping the script: U.S. cracks down on illegal Chinese teachers On May 17th, the United States Department of State sent out a policy directive to American universities sponsoring Confucius Institutes. It states that Chinese academics teaching grade-school levels at institutions without the proper accreditation are violating the terms of their visas and must leave the country at the end of the current term. [ more › ]

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Presented By:

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:40 AM PDT

Russian cellist Oleg Vedernikov sacked by Beijing Symphony Orchestra

Posted: 22 May 2012 01:33 AM PDT

Russian cellist Oleg Vedernikov sacked by Beijing Symphony Orchestra Oleg Vedernikov, the principal cellist of the Beijing Symphony Orchestra and arguably the most famous Russian expat in China, is now officially jobless. The orchestra has decided to sack him for his "uncivilised behaviour" in an incident on a high-speed train headed from Shenyang to Beijing last week. [ more › ]

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Shanghai has sunk 6 ft since 1921

Posted: 22 May 2012 12:43 AM PDT

Shanghai has sunk 6 ft since 1921 Kate Springer of TIME's Ecocentric blog, has some eye-popping numbers in her latest post on land subsidence, which she says is affecting more than 50 cities in China. Across the country, 49,000 sq. mi. of land have dropped at least 8 in, and Shanghai is, unsurprisingly, leading China's rapid descent into the ground, and has sunk more than 6 ft. since 1921. [ more › ]

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Yang Rui’s “Dialogue” Feminized A Male Guest’s Name On Last Night’s Show, Continued To Be Crappy

Posted: 21 May 2012 11:47 PM PDT

Last night's Dialogue, embedded after the jump, was about the NATO Summit in Chicago. The two foreign guests were Einar Tangen ("Biz Times columnist & author" [Biz Times is a business paper in Milwaukee]) and Francesco Sisci, Sole 24 Ore columnist.

They misspelled Mr. Sisci's name.

Maybe it's time to lighten up on the chaps who produce Dialogue, the comically unwatchable show on CCTV… including Yang Rui. Because if they can't even get a man's name right — this is the difference between Francesco and Francesca, by the way:

– what hope do they have in the arena of public opinion?

Oh, and Dialogue is seeking news editors. Don't fret about the "minimum of 10 years experience working in the media industry" requirement. If you think you're able to correctly spell a dude's name, you just might be qualified.

Ultimate Frisbee As Reported On China Central Television

Posted: 21 May 2012 10:30 PM PDT

For those of you who play Ultimate Frisbee (disclosure: I do), you'll be interested to know that Chinese state media's sports channel, CCTV-5, came by and did a piece on the Beijing tournament over the weekend that was organized by BJC contributor Alicia. More than 400 players and 24 teams were part of the sixth annual China Nationals, won by Speed, a team of college students from Tianjin Sports University.

For the rest of you — here are two cats playing on a cat tree.

Douchebag CCTV host Yang Rui backtracks, hopes we'll forget about him

Posted: 21 May 2012 11:31 PM PDT

Douchebag CCTV host Yang Rui backtracks, hopes we'll forget about him Yang Rui (杨锐), the world's most widely watched Chinglish talkshow host and anchor of CCTV News' Monologue Dialogue, has, in his latest statement to Josh Chin of the Wall Street Journal, attempted to walk back some of his more incendiary remarks made against foreigners in China. [ more › ]

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Yang Rui, Writing In Global Times, Says He Called Melissa Chan A “Shrew” (Not Bitch) [UPDATE]

Posted: 21 May 2012 10:14 PM PDT

Here is the "editor's note" that precedes Yang Rui's first public defense of himself on English-language media:

Yang Rui is the Managing Editor and Host of Dialogue on CCTV News, which endeavors to present news about China and the world from a Chinese perspective and in a balanced way. He is responding to an article posted May 18th on the website of Wall Street Journal, which was published without his knowledge or comment.

If you care to read on, here it is. The penultimate paragraph:

The more serious part of the accusations against me is the mischaracterization of what I said in Chinese; "Po Fu" if you look it up on Jin Shan Ci Ba, one of the most popular Chinese translation sites, and A Chinese-English Dictionary, the third edition published by Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press in January, 2010, means "shrew."

UPDATE, 1:48 pm: Yang Rui was not writing for Global Times; the text comes from an email he first sent to the Wall Street Journal, later copied by GT with slight edits and published under Yang's byline.

OK, People: This Is Why The Space Underneath Urinals In China Is Filthy

Posted: 21 May 2012 09:05 PM PDT

Because of ads like the above. No one — and I mean NO ONE, except possibly Horst Schultz, who holds the record for "greatest distance attained for a jet of semen" — has the ability to piss with that arc and that range, not to mention enough velocity to ensure minimal — i.e. NONE, because anything more than none is too much — sprayage or drippage onto the floor. C'mon, admen: "unrealistic expectations," much?

The picture was taken with Instagram at a Xi'an airport by I'm a Roybot; the ad is apparently for Monarch portable toilets. (H/T Buzzfeed via Alicia)

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