| Photo: Jiuzhaigou Valley, by Jeriff Cheng Posted: 28 Dec 2012 12:18 AM PST |
| Changes and Challenges for China in 2013 Posted: 27 Dec 2012 11:56 PM PST In the wake of a leadership transition and at the end of an erratic year – full of scandalous political plummets, diplomacy-testing activist escapes and enflamed nationalism, one can only wonder what will come in 2013. Time will tell, but informed analysts can offer us clues as we wait. As 2012 winds to an end, fellows from the Council on Foreign Relations predict the changes and challenges to come in 2013: This October, China's Eighteenth National Congress ushered in a new generation of leaders that will set the agenda for the second-largest economy in the world, provoking myriad questions about what we'll see out of the country in the coming year. CFR's Adam Segal predicts continued international concern for China's cyber policy, while CFR's Elizabeth C. Economy weighs its challenges of keeping "foreign policy front and center" against a heavy list of domestic concerns. Claremont McKenna's Minxin Pei adds that China will be forced to respond to calls for greater political openness, facing a delicate balancing act. CFR's Yanzhong Huang points out that despite China's highly publicized health-care achievements, reform hasn't fundamentally solved the problem of access and affordability.
Since Xi Jinping took the reins as CCP general secretary, domestic policy has been front and center: we have seen a symbolic trip to the south emphasize the leader's commitment to economic reform, and have heard the powerful princeling identify the eradication of party corruption as a major policy goal. Also in question are the prospects for political reform – potentially divisive as the influence of previous party leadership lingers. A reform-minded new leader and an anti-corruption campaign both made Sinocism curator Bill Bishop's list of "8 Trends to Keep an Eye On" in 2013, published at the NY Times' Dealbook blog: NEW LEADER Xi Jinping has moved quickly in his first three weeks to project an image of change. The government faces a growing expectations gap with its citizens and needs to rebuild public confidence. Mr. Xi is talking a lot about the Chinese dream and the "great renewal of the Chinese nation" — nationalist concepts with significant appeal. Mr. Xi's choice of Shenzhen for his first domestic inspection trip is a symbolic tribute to Deng Xiaoping's 1992 southern tour that restarted reforms after 1989. Mr. Xi's visit is most likely a signal that he is serious about pushing forward with changes. Expect renewed energy around overhauls, primarily economic and administrative but possibly some political ones. CRACKDOWN ON CORRUPTION The new leadership has begun a public crackdown on corruption. One relatively senior official and several minor officials have already fallen. Internet exposés brought down the minor officials, but there are reports that the Communist Party's central disciplinary inspection commission has started new investigations into money laundering through Macau. Expect this antigraft campaign to ensnare more senior officials and to be the most effective in recent memory, yet ultimately stop short of addressing the systemic issues that have allowed corruption to flourish.
There are those, including CFR's Elizabeth C. Economy and Bill Bishop above, who stress the importance of China's foreign policy in the year to come. CNBC talked to Daniel Franklin, editor of The Economist's "The World in 2013": The relationship between China's new leader Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama "is absolutely the crucial one now for global politics," Franklin tells The Daily Ticker. Franklin says both men need to keep U.S.-China trade flowing. China is the second largest trading partner of the U.S. Last year $503 billion worth of goods were exchanged between the two countries. 80% of those items were U.S. imports from China. Franklin says both countries also need to work on resolving disputes between China and other countries over ownership of islands in the South China Sea. Many of those countries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, are allies of the U.S. "This is something that has to be handled, adjusted to, and it will be awkward, no doubt about it," says Franklin.
China's English-language press also offers us a forecast into the Year of the Water Snake. Xinhua describes rural development efforts to be expected in 2013, and the Global Times cites World Bank data predicting that GDP growth, which fell in 2012, will rebound: The World Bank raised its 2013 economic growth forecast for China Wednesday, citing the government's fiscal stimulus plans and faster approval of large investment projects. China's growth is projected to recover in 2013 to 8.4 percent due to the combination of monetary easing, local government fiscal stimulus, accelerated approval of investment projects and an upswing in the business cycle, the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update published Wednesday. The bank also forecast that growth will reach 7.9 percent for 2012, significantly down from 9.3 percent in 2011.
For more on the economic front, Bloomberg reports that China plans to increase its budget deficit by 50 percent in 2013, which could help to boost urbanization and consumer demand. Next year may also bring further changes to China's role in the global economy. While foreign firms invested 3.6 percent less in China compared to last year, Chinese firms invested 25 percent more abroad. Chinese FDI has long landed primarily in the developing world, but firms are also beginning to invest seriously in developed countries. Forbes predicts that this trend will continue, and identifies 13 Chinese companies that will "go global" in 2013: Chinese foreign direct investment has long been characterized as focusing on securing raw materials in emerging markets like Africa and Latin America. But as the list of the top 13 Chinese companies going global below demonstrates, this is no longer the case. Chinese investment continues in strategic natural resources like oil and gas; however, companies in industries ranging from consumer electronics, entertainment, athletic apparel and even luxury boating are all pushing beyond the borders of the Middle Kingdom. Through expansion overseas, they aim to gain access to new distribution channels, international managers, brand recognition and technological expertise in global markets. While some of the names appearing on the top 13 for 2013 are well on their way to becoming househould names, a few of the others may come as a surprise…
© josh rudolph for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: 18th party congress, 2013, economic growth, economic reform, Internet regulation, leadership transition, political reform, predictions, technology, Xi Jinping, year end lists 2012
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| Will Reform vs. Anti-Reform Define 2013? Posted: 27 Dec 2012 07:53 PM PST For The Wall Street Journal, Russell Leigh Moses of the Beijing Center for Chinese Studies explores whether a new political struggle is emerging between new Communist Party chief Xi Jinping, who has indicated a desire to push through reform, and the anti-reform allies of former leader Hu Jintao. Moses details the forces at play, and ponders Xi's next move: He could try to force a showdown with Hu and his allies on major issues. Or Xi and his colleagues might risk a bit of radical reform of some sort, to find support in the street, and try to capitalize on those parts of the society and the party that clamor for change, and are weary of waiting. Or Xi could wait a bit, hibernate until the spring, when Hu is scheduled to step down as president in March and the political path for the summer then a bit clearer. Xi could initiate some small change in the interim – perhaps speeding up the restructuring of the hukou system. But can reform wait even that long? Can the economy? Or Xi could move to find an accommodation now, working from the common ground that surely must exist–even after Xi's early sniping at the state of the party that he's had to inherit. It's not entirely clear if it's Xi's program that opponents object to, or more the speed at which Xi seems to be pursuing reforms. This much seems already true: that the handover to a new leadership was the easy part—a mere transition. The hopes—and the hazards — of a far greater transformation beckon.
See also CDT coverage of an open letter released by on Christmas Day urging the new leadership to pursue political reform.
© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: CCP 5th generation, Hu Jintao, political struggle, reform, Xi Jinping
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| Xinhua Profiles Project Human Side of Leaders Posted: 27 Dec 2012 07:29 PM PST The Wall Street Journal reports that Xinhua News this week published several "lengthy profiles" detailing the lives of China's new Politburo Standing Committee members: The profiles seemed to be a well-intentioned nod to lift the veil of secrecy long surrounding party leaders. The articles' obsequiousness, however, was a reminder how far Mr. Xi and other newly anointed leaders have to go if they're serious about following through on pledges to reconnect the party to the people. "From the Loess Plateau to the southeast coast, from localities to central leadership, Xi has had a well-rounded political career and has developed a deep understanding of the conditions of his country and people," gushed the Xinhua profile of Mr. Xi. The article's English version, published Sunday, sprawled some 3,000 words. The profiles' thrusts are all roughly the same: China's newest generation of leaders rose through individual hard work and sacrifice, but never lost their affinity for China's laobaixing, or common folks. To underscore the point, Xinhua published more than a dozen photos of Mr. Xi in his younger – and slightly trimmer – days that have been widely reposted on Chinese news websites. One photo shows Mr. Xi smiling with villagers in the northern province of Hebei, where he served as a young cadre. Another photo shows Mr. Xi bicycling with daughter Xi Mingze seated on the back, clutching at her father's waist.
The New Yorker's Evan Osnos writes that the contents of Xi's profile "steered clear of surprises," but were worth noting in a country where "the people they rule know less about them than the average subscriber to the Times living in Armonk:" This is all part of Xi's concerted effort to project his human side—or what we might call his Theory of Deliberate Nonchalance. So far, Xi's propaganda system is heavily promoting the fact that he shies away from the traditional Presidential entourage, got rid of flowers on the dais and the flowery talk from behind it, and so on. (Skeptics abound, including David Bandurski, who notes that Xi's calls for people not to parrot each other is causing underlings to leap on the "anti-bandwagon bandwagon.") For my money, the most interesting part of the new profile is the photo album, a carefully curated dip into the archives that follows Xi from the Cultural Revolution to the present day. Better yet is the photo above, from the cover of China's Vista Magazine earlier this month. After picking it up from the newsstand because it had a cover story about Xi's first political tour, my wife, Sarabeth, noticed something potentially more surprising than anything inside: gray hairs. Is Xi testing the unofficial rule that Chinese men at the top of the government must dye their hair to look vital? Now that would be news.
© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: CCP 5th generation, Politburo Standing Committee, transparency, Xi Jinping, XInhua News
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| China’s GPS Alternative Goes Public Across Asia-Pacific Posted: 27 Dec 2012 05:25 PM PST China's Beidou satellite navigation system is now open to commercial use across the Asia-Pacific region one year after its civilian debut within China, offering an alternative or addition to the American-run Global Positioning System. From the BBC: A spokesman said that Beidou is targeting a 70-80% share of the Chinese market in related location services by 2020. The China Satellite Navigation Office added that by that time it also intended the service to be available across the globe. […] Six satellites are already in orbit, but officials said they planned to add a further 40 to the system over the next decade, according to a report by China Daily. Organisers have estimated that the market for transport, weather, and telecom spin-off services from Beidou's signals could be worth 200bn yuan ($32bn; £20bn) by 2015. However, it is widely thought another motivation for the project is China's desire not to be reliant on a foreign-operated system that could be turned off at a time of conflict. The South China Morning Post's Minnie Chan described Beidou's international launch as a milestone in China's campaign to establish an independent navigation system. Expanding into the Asia-Pacific region – from Afghanistan to the Western Pacific and Mongolia to northern Australia – puts the system on track to claim 15 to 20 per cent of the GPS-dominated domestic market by 2015, said Ran Chengqi , a BDS spokesman and director of the China Satellite Navigation Office. […] An early version has been used by traffic control systems in more than 100,000 vehicles in nine provinces and cities. […] The central government has spent billions on the system and in the coming decade plans to invest over 40 billion yuan (HK$49 billion) more, Ran said. […] An estimated 95 per cent of global-positioning equipment on the mainland still relies on GPS data, Xinhua said. Global Times described the system as the future "cornerstone of China's participation in the international advanced technology industry", and urged its widespread adoption and support: We […] appeal to Chinese consumers to firmly support BeiDou and be users of this system. BeiDou can represent China's advanced technology; it has improved the quality of China's modernization process. Support for Beidou can build the Chinese people's collective competitiveness. […] Some problems may be found in its operation because BeiDou is a new system. Chinese consumers should remain clear-headed regarding our country's long-term interests, and show tolerance toward the BeiDou system. In the final analysis, the strength of Beidou cannot be separated from broad participation from Chinese society. Besides market users, such participation should also include people supporting our country's scientific and technological progress. For China, which has developed later than many other countries, progress means challenging advanced global forces. The success of State-level projects depends on the determination and will of all of society. China's ability to compete with developed countries in terms of advanced technology is growing. BeiDou is one of China's players in this competition. All Chinese consumers should applaud it. The whole country backs the development of BeiDou. 'Beidou' 北斗 comes from the Chinese name for the Big Dipper or Plough constellation.
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Post tags: GPS, navigation satellite, satellite, satellites, space technology, technology
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| TVs, Satellite Dishes Confiscated in Tibetan Areas Posted: 27 Dec 2012 01:17 PM PST Authorities in Qinghai are increasing patrols, confiscating TVs, dismantling satellite dishes and tightening travel restrictions in Tibetan areas in response to recent self-immolations and general unrest. From Brian Spegele at The Wall Street Journal: Growing unrest in Qinghai province in recent months apparently is worrying local leaders. Earlier self-immolations had been largely concentrated in the adjacent province of Sichuan. The uptick in tensions in Tibetan portions of Qinghai suggests deepening distrust of local party leaders. Tibetans activists lament what they describe as forced cultural assimilation, political and religious repression and environmental degradation as some of the problems that underlay the self-immolations and wider unrest across the region. Authorities in Huangnan are also pledging to "block harmful outside information," according to Thursday's state media report. It said authorities had already begun dismantling satellite and other equipment used to broadcast overseas programming. Authorities described the programming—much of it produced with the backing of Western governments—as "anti-Chinese" and vowed to increase access to Chinese state-backed programming instead. Reuters reports that 300 monasteries have been affected by the TV seizures: The government in Huangnan said its approach in tackling self-immolations comprised of "guiding public opinion on the Dalai issue", increasing patrols and "blocking outside harmful information", according to the news agency, which is managed by the Qinghai government. "At this critical moment for maintaining social stability in Huangnan prefecture … (we must) strengthen measures and fully fight the special battle against self-immolations," the article said. "We do not know anything about it," an official from the Huangnan prefecture government told Reuters by telephone, when asked to confirm the report, before hanging up. The efforts to guide public opinion have included a series of articles and videos distributed abroad through blocked services like Twitter and YouTube. A representative China Daily article, 'Monks vent anger at self-immolation', stressed the effects of self-immolations on local businesses, shocked passers-by, and scarred and reportedly repentant survivors, whom it portrayed as innocent dupes of the Dalai Lama and his manipulative and villainous agents: People used to gather and watch the acts of self-immolation, but now the act has been disguised, said Ngarnang, director of Aba county's information office. "We have seen a trend whereby the location of these acts has moved from the county seat to the countryside, because it is less public. After all, the Dalai Lama and his followers just need the photographs and videos to use in their propaganda campaign. They know they won't get any support from the local people." […] Lorang Konchok took advantage of his position as a Geshe, a name given to monks who hold an exclusive degree in Buddhist studies. He told local monks and followers that self-immolation was not against Buddhist doctrine and that those who performed the act were "heroes". However, he admitted that he had no intention of becoming a "hero" himself. "I won't self-immolate because I am scared of the pain," said Lorang Konchok at the detention center in Aba prefecture in early December. "I didn't regard them (self-immolators) as heroes until two other monks, Samdam and Dorah, told me so. They also told me they could help publicize those who set themselves on fire." […] Police later discovered that Lorang Konchok was behind five other acts of self-immolation this year, including that of a young man who also took his own life in March. Two people were also forced to flee their hometown to avoid Lorang Konchok, who harassed them and urged them to commit self-immolation. They did not return to their homes until Lorang Konchok and Lorang Tsering were apprehended by the police. Facts about the self-immolations in Tibetan Areas of Ngapayoutube.com/watch?v=ID1hI5… — Xinhua News Agency (@XHNews) December 26, 2012 See more on Tibetan self-immolations via CDT.
© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: China Daily, Dalai Lama, qinghai, Qinghai Province, self-immolations, state media, Tibet, Tibetan protests, Xinhua
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| Chinese Taste for Fish Rankles Posted: 27 Dec 2012 10:56 AM PST Following the seizure of two Chinese fishing vessels by the Argentinian coast guard on Wednesday and a series of incidents in waters closer to home, Chuin-Wei Yap and Sameer Mohindru report at The Wall Street Journal on China's growing appetite for seafood, and its ecological and geopolitical effects. The episode comes as China's fishing boats increasingly find themselves embroiled in both cross-border and commercial disputes. Chinese ships fish in both international waters and under bilateral fisheries agreement in the waters of other nations. They work for largely private companies or for themselves, and aren't generally directed by Beijing. However, in Asian waters, fishing boats have become a proxy for China's sovereign reach in largely territorial spats. In cases farther afield, its fishing boats have been entangled in accusations of overfishing and harming local economies. […] China's hunger is growing at a time when around 87% of global fisheries are seen to be at full exploitation, overexploited, or depleted, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. China like other nations has signed international agreements that allow it to fish in global waters, and some fishing experts have praised Beijing for beefing up its statistics on fishing in some areas and for raising more fish in domestic farms. Still, a European Commission report this year said China reported just 368,000 tons of its 2010-2011 catch from the high seas compared with an estimated actual haul of 4.6 million tons. The height of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute in the autumn saw forays into the islands' waters by fishing boats from Hong Kong and Taiwan, while China dispatched its own fishery monitoring vessels. Reports suggested that a thousand-strong armada of Chinese fishing boats would also converge on the islands, but this ultimately failed to materialise.
© Samuel Wade for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: argentina, coast guard, conservation, diaoyu islands, fishing, Japan, marine economy, senkaku islands, south korea, Vietnam
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| Will 2013 Bring War Over the Diaoyu Islands? Posted: 27 Dec 2012 07:33 AM PST Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun on Thursday said the Chinese military is on guard against Japanese jet activity near the Diaoyu Islands, according to Xinhua News: "We will decisively fulfill our tasks and missions while coordinating with relevant departments such as maritime supervision organs, so as to safeguard China's maritime law enforcement activities and protect the country's territorial integrity and maritime rights," Yang said. Yang said it is "justifiable" for the Chinese military to provide security in waters under China's jurisdiction, and other countries are "in no position" to make irresponsible remarks in this regard. "China-Japan defense relations are an important and sensitive part of bilateral ties, and the Japanese side should face up to the difficulties and problems that currently exist in bilateral ties," Yang said.
While China and Japan have run patrol ships around the Diaoyus over the past few months, tensions escalated earlier this month when Japan scrambled fighter jets after it alleged that a Chinese surveillance plane violated its airspace above the territory. Observers have differed over whether China would use force over the islands. Australian academic Hugh White warned in the Sydney Morning Herald today that the U.S. and Japan could go to war with China over the islands next year unless each side overcomes the "mutual misconceptions" that have led to the current standoff: Where will it end? The risk is that, without a clear circuit-breaker, the escalation will continue until at some point shots are exchanged, and a spiral to war begins that no one can stop. Neither side could win such a war, and it would be devastating not just for them but for the rest of us. No one wants this, but the crisis will not stop by itself. One side or other, or both, will have to take positive steps to break the cycle of action and reaction. This will be difficult, because any concession by either side would so easily be seen as a backdown, with huge domestic political costs and international implications. It would therefore need real political strength and skill, which is in short supply all round – especially in Tokyo and Beijing, which both have new and untested leaders. And each side apparently hopes that they will not have to face this test, because they expect the other side will back down first.
For The Diplomat, former Australian journalist and diplomat Rory Medcalf calls White's prediction "a big call indeed:" Of course it would be folly to count on a prolonged crisis simply fizzling out. But both China and Japan are more than capable of strategic patience. Neither wants to force the issue in the immediate term. Each government has an interest in trying to exert greater control over the various institutional players — not just navies but also civilian maritime agencies — whose operational decisions could make the difference between calm and crisis. The good news is that Japan's newly-elected conservative Abe government has no pressing reason to pursue further provocation. And whatever its forceful rhetoric, the new Chinese leadership has little near-term incentive to prod Japan further; an armed confrontation with Japan that ended badly for China would be worse for the credibility of China's leaders than no clash at all. Doubtless there will be a need for cool heads and assiduous incident-management in the months ahead. But considerably more likely than war in 2013 is the possibility that, for all their tough talk, all sides are already working quietly to engineer a decent interval after which they can resume some serious diplomacy.
See also previous CDT coverage of the Diaoyu Island dispute.
© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: diaoyu islands, maritime security, military conflict, senkaku islands, Sino-Japanese relations, Sino-U.S. Relations, sovereignty, territorial disputes
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| Is Change Emerging in China’s Factories? Posted: 27 Dec 2012 06:45 AM PST Keith Bradsher and Charles Duhigg of The New York Times report that electronics companies such as Apple, which came under heavy criticism earlier this year for the working conditions on its Chinese assembly lines, have changed the way they approach social responsibility at the factories that manufacture their products: When Ms. Pu was hired at this Foxconn plant a year earlier, she received a short, green plastic stool that left her unsupported back so sore that she could barely sleep at night. Eventually, she was promoted to a wooden chair, but the backrest was much too small to lean against. The managers of this 164,000-employee factory, she surmised, believed that comfort encouraged sloth. But in March, unbeknown to Ms. Pu, a critical meeting had occurred between Foxconn's top executives and a high-ranking Apple official. The companies had committed themselves to a series of wide-ranging reforms. Foxconn, China's largest private employer, pledged to sharply curtail workers' hours and significantly increase wages — reforms that, if fully carried out next year as planned, could create a ripple effect that benefits tens of millions of workers across the electronics industry, employment experts say. Other reforms were more personal. Protective foam sprouted on low stairwell ceilings inside factories. Automatic shut-off devices appeared on whirring machines. Ms. Pu got her chair. This autumn, she even heard that some workers had received cushioned seats. The changes also extend to California, where Apple is based. Apple, the electronics industry's behemoth, in the last year has tripled its corporate social responsibility staff, has re-evaluated how it works with manufacturers, has asked competitors to help curb excessive overtime in China and has reached out to advocacy groups it once rebuffed.
Foxconn, which manufactures electronics for the likes of Apple, Dell, Samsung and others, pledged earlier this year to improve conditions in its factories after the Fair Labor Association published a report finding violations of both Chinese law and industry codes of conduct. Apple also issued a statement to The New York Times in response to its questions for the article: "Apple takes working conditions very seriously and we have for a long time. Our efforts range from protecting to empowering to improving the lives of everyone involved in assembling an Apple product. No one in our industry is doing as much as we are, in as many places, touching as many people as we do. Through years of hard work and steadfast commitment, we have set workplace, dormitory and safety standards, sought help from the world's leading experts, and established groundbreaking educational programs for workers. Since 2008, more than 200,000 factory workers have taken free classes including college-level courses provided by Apple, and over one million employees have been educated on their rights through our worker empowerment training program. "We believe workers everywhere have the right to a safe and fair work environment where they can earn competitive wages and express their concerns freely. Our suppliers have to live up to that if they want to do business with Apple. … "Apple is in a unique position to lead and we have embraced this role since the earliest days of our supplier responsibility program. We do all these things out of respect for our customers and, most of all, the people who make our products."
See also the New York Times' previous in-depth reporting on Foxconn as part of their iEconomy series: Part 1: How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work and Part 2: In China, Human Costs Are Built Into an iPad . Read more about Foxconn, Apple and labor conditions in China via CDT, including, "This American Life's Foxconn Retraction: Reactions," which looks at recent coverage of Foxconn.
© Scott Greene for China Digital Times (CDT), 2012. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: Apple, corporate responsibility, Foxconn, labor conditions, labor rights, manufacturing
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