Links » Crème » The Daily Twit – 10/23/12: Transitioning From U.S. Election to China Leadership Change

Links » Crème » The Daily Twit – 10/23/12: Transitioning From U.S. Election to China Leadership Change


The Daily Twit – 10/23/12: Transitioning From U.S. Election to China Leadership Change

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 06:05 AM PDT

OK, so we've all had quite enough of the U.S. never-ending election, yes? The good news is that it actually does end, albeit briefly, and that end date is coming up in two weeks. The toning down of the China bashing started today with the last presidential debate.

I mentioned in the last Daily Twit that I would probably write a post on the debate, since it was supposed to be not only about foreign policy, but specifically about China, at least in part. That didn't work out so well, and the debate was remarkably without substance. I did write a post this morning, but it was more of a complaint than a commentary. U.S. Presidential "Foreign Policy" Debate: China Fatigue?

Before I give you a few links, allow me to quote from the debate moderator as he pivoted to the discussion on China. This is difficult to believe, so I feel more comfortable with a direct quote:

Let's — let's go to the next segment, because it's a very important one. It is the rise of China and future challenges for America. I want to just begin this by asking both of you, and Mr. President, you — you go first this time.

What do you believe is the greatest future threat to the national security of this country?

First, note that I'm not making this up. That is indeed a direct quote. Second, if you're not familiar with debates of this kind, the guy who made that statement is a "journalist" and is supposed to be neutral.

So yeah, the moderator basically kicked off the China segment of the debate by blatantly questioning whether the PRC is America's greatest security threat. Amazing, huh? The surprising part of all that, or I should say the more surprising part, was that the debate did not devolve into nasty China scare mongering. In other words, the candidates did not take the bait dangled in front of them by the crappy moderator.

Right. Some links:

Asia Society: Why Obama-Romney Anti-China Rhetoric Will End (After the Election) — Interview with Richard Solomon, who discusses the usual cycles that U.S. presidents go through with respect to China policy.

Business Insider: Romney Can't Afford To Do Much More China-Bashing — My impression of the debate was different, as I saw it as a toned down version of the campaign. The warning put forward in this article, therefore, is unnecessary.

Wall Street Journal: Experts React: Obama, Romney 'Debate' China — The usual round-up of expert opinions from the folks at WSJ.

Associated Press: Obama, Romney say China needs to play by the rules — The main thrust of this article is that the debate was less about foreign policy than domestic issues. With respect to China, that meant talking less about bilateral issues and more about what the U.S. needs to do with its own economic policy to better compete with the PRC.

Reuters: U.S. candidates pass over tough China questions in final debate — Similar to the AP article, describing the China segment of the debate as little more than an excuse to discuss domestic policy.

China Law & Policy: China & the Presidential Debate — Elizabeth Lynch wasn't thrilled with the debate either, but she does manage to review the China parts without sarcasm or snark, which is more than I can say for myself.

New York Times: Pressing Issues in Asia Get Scant Attention in Debate — Mark McDonald pretty much agrees with the guys linked to above, although he also mentions that North Korea was almost completely ignored. Hard to believe.

And now for something completely different.

So as the presidential election in the U.S. winds down, you're going to start seeing the media ramp up their coverage of China's legislative sessions, the Party Congress, and a whole bunch of rumor mongering. Should be fun. Here's a taste of what to expect, from Reuters:

Reuters: China hints at reform by dropping Mao wording — Certain high-level official proclamations in China include formulaic language, and when those formulas are altered, it's a huge deal. Removing "Mao Zedong Thought" is significant and signals . . . something. Probably either future reforms, or maybe the image of a reformist leadership, or perhaps just a push back against the Bo Xilai crew. Either way, it's a heck of a lot of fun to speculate.

A couple other things:

Business Insider: Consumption 10 years firstly contributes more to economic growth than investment — OK, ignore the Chinglish headline. That was supposed to say that consumption in China is finally outpacing investment. If that is indeed the case (big if) and is sustainable, this is a huge win for the "rebalancing" crowd. Getting consumption up is the solution to several things, arguably even the trade imbalance (you remember Y = C + I + G + (X – M), right?).

Bloomberg: China Bans Foreign Ships From Rivers as Local Operators Struggle — This is a strange story of protectionism that I need to look into more. My first question is whether any of this is/was covered by WTO commitments.

Atlantic: A Taste of Mob Rule in China — Damien Ma talks about the anti-Japanese protests and government control. He also tells the story of how he was, well, almost kidnapped. A personal, scary read.


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Top 10 Search List (October 23, 2012)

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 03:04 AM PDT

1) 吉松育美 (Jísōng Yùméi, Ikumi Yoshimatsu) – The 52nd Miss International Beauty Contest was held last Sunday in Naha, Okinawa, with Japan taking the top prize for the first time since the contest began in 1960. Japan's representative, 25-year-old Ikumi Yoshimatsu was crowned Miss International, and described the experience as "a dream come true!" Chinese story here.

2) 李娜死亡之组 (Lí Nà sǐwángzhīzú, Li Na in the Red group) – Li Na, the 2011 French Open champion, was the last of the eight players to qualify for the WTA Championships. Li, the eighth seed, is in the Red group (also called the death group) of the tournament's round-robin stage, joining No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, No. 3 Serena Williams, and No. 5 Angelique Kerber. English story here.

3) 黑寡妇战机 (heīguáfùzhànjī, Black Widow aircraft) –The Northrop P-61 Black Widow, named for the American spider, was the first operational U.S. military aircraft designed specifically for night interception of aircraft, and was the first aircraft specifically designed to use radar. It was an all-metal, twin-engine, twin-boom design developed during World War II. The last aircraft was retired from government service in 1954. One of the only two Black Widow aircraft on the earth is on exhibition in Beijing. Its unique shape is familiar to all Chinese boys and was a much-loved plane from the War of Resistance. Chinese story here.

4) 谢昱航 (Xiè Yùháng, Xie Yuhang) – Xie is a reporter from China Youth Daily and recently wrote a editorial piece on a group of tourists visiting Japan on a cruise ship. The piece defended those tourists against nationalistic accusations. Chinese story here.

5) 周婕 (Zhōu Jié, Zhou Jie) – 2012 Olympics Games gold medalist Zhou Kai showed up on the stag e of an entertainment show yesterday. Zhou Jie, his girlfriend, came on to stage and gave him a hug. Chinese story here.

6) 重阳节(chóngyángjié, Chong Yang festival) - Chong Yang festival is the traditional Chinese holiday for the elderly. It's also a custom to climb mountains with your family on this day.  Chinese story here.

7) 刺猬包 (cìweìbāo, hedgehog backpack ) – The photo of a man carrying a so-called "hedgehog backpack" on the subway has been circulating online. Many criticized him for creating personal space in the crowded subway by hurting others. Chinese story here.

8)月薪9000不惶恐 (yuèxīn9000 bùhuángkóng, not too shabby a life with a monthly salary of 9000 yuan) – According to a recent survey named "how much monthly salary will give you not so shabby a life in your city?", people believe they need around 9000 yuan per month to be not constantly worried about their life in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Chinese story here.

9) 长春大雪(Chángchūndàxué, heavy snow in Changchun) – Heavy snow in Changchun, Heilongjiang Province damaged thousands of trees in the city and delayed most outbound airline flights. Chinese story here.

10) 吕紫剑 (Lǘ Zíjiàn,  Lv Zijian) – Lv Zijian is a well-respected master in Chinese martial arts and was the oldest man in Chongqing. He passed away at the age of 118. Chinese story here.

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Chinese Netizens and U.S. Election Journamalism

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 10:20 PM PDT

I've been critical, on occasion, of lazy journalists who, instead of reporting on actual China news, simply take an existing China story, jump online to grab a few weibo posts, and then write the standard "Chinese netizens react to Topic A" article. This is perfectly fine if your news organization's raison d'être is tracking Chinese online opinion (e.g., Tea Leaf Nation, Ministry of Tofu, or ChinaGeeks) but not when that organization is a member of the mainstream media.

I usually don't point fingers in specific directions on this complaint, since this is a widespread problem, but I think having a real life example helps to show exactly what the problem is. Moreover, I happened to see this headline today at CNN and couldn't keep quiet:

Obama, Romney's 'China bashing' grates Chinese netizens

This is ridiculous on its face. A great deal can be written about China bashing (I should know), but this article isn't really about that. It's about reaction to anti-China rhetoric. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't a possible interesting angle to write about.

I could see, for example, having a reporter go and interview Chinese nationals living in the U.S. You know, you send your D.C. reporter over to Rockville and talk to some of the Chinese PhDs about what it's like living in the U.S. when American politicians attack their native land. Not exactly Pulitzer material, I grant you, but a hell of a lot better than cutting and pasting weibo posts.

But no, that would require too much time/effort. It's much easier to see what Chinese folks over here are saying on weibo. Gee, I wonder what they think about anti-China statements from the U.S. presidential candidates? It's a mystery to me. After all, if you get a bunch of young Chinese netizens who seem to have plenty of nationalists in their midst, well, you never know how they might react to this sort of thing. Maybe some of them are Mormons and are cheering on Mitt Romney no matter what he says? Perhaps they're so cool and hipsterish that even a foreigner repeatedly calling China a "cheater" elicits nothing more than a shrug and a "whatever"?

Yeah, I don't think so either. But don't take my word for it. Here's an excerpt:

The tough rhetoric portraying China as an economic boogeyman did not go unnoticed by Chinese netizens who took to Sina Weibo, the biggest microblog in the country.

"America can't solve its own problem so it always uses China as an excuse," wrote @Longhuachuntian127.

{facepalm} That's what CNN thinks is going to drive people to its web site? It's almost a caricature of real news reporting. And I'm not really blaming the author here; she was probably told by some editor somewhere to do this.

I know that these organizations have no money and are struggling with a declining viewership, but this is not the way to dig yourselves out of a hole. I am glad CNN gave Kristie Lu Stout a China show, and they do have Jaime FlorCruz, but after reading that lame netizen article, I'm not so sure anyone on the website side of things is trying all that hard.


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U.S. Presidential “Foreign Policy” Debate: China Fatigue?

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 08:48 PM PDT

Well, I'd love to write a nice, in-depth and thoughtful post on the third U.S. presidential debate, but honestly, I have nothing of substance to talk about. The debate, which was supposed to include a whole section on "the Rise of China," did indeed touch on the subject, but there was zero substance to the discussion. A couple of minutes of the usual trade/currency related China bashing, then some weird tangents, like how much everyone loves teachers. I am not making that up.

I love teachers too (I am one), but that really didn't seem like an appropriate thing to bring up during the "foreign policy" debate.

Romney did go off on IP infringement for a few seconds, talking about some valve company whose products were copied. Not really sure what the point was since he was referring to imports into the U.S. If the products were covered by a patent or design, then the valve guys could go to court, the ITC or Customs. If there was no real IP protection, then there's a technical legal term we lawyers like to use when referring to that kind of activity: not illegal. {sigh}

Maybe the candidates simply ran out of China bashing rhetoric? After you complain about trade, currency and IP infringement 12,395 times, what more can be said? Sure, there's always China's leadership change, tensions with Japan and Southeast Asia, the slowing Chinese economy, environmental issues, etc. But let's face it, Jon Huntsman wasn't on the stage tonight, and this was the result. There was simply no interest in talking about real China issues, and the moderator didn't seem to give a shit one way or the other. I'm going to reach for a little bit of positive news here and call this debate the beginning of the end of all the campaign China bashing.

For what it's worth, the whole debate sucked big time. It was supposed to be about substantive foreign policy issues but much of it was about domestic policy and how much everyone loves Israel. Oy. No mention of real China issues that might have an effect on bilateral relations, no discussion of Asia regional problems that directly effect U.S. national security, no talk about some of the recent Chinese investment and cybersecurity issues. Shit, no mention of Europe, Africa, Mexico, India — pretty much most of the world. I think about 80% of the thing covered the Middle East and how super cool Israel is.

Both of them said they support illegal assassinations from the sky (i.e. drones), though, so there is that bit of testosterone-generated murderous clarity which, like the cheerleading for Israel, is super cool.

My suggestion for any future debate that is supposed to involve China is to frame all questions in a way that is sure to attract the attention of the moderator and the candidates. Here are a few suggestions:

Question 1: If China agreed to sign off on a multilateral plan to reduce carbon emissions and Israel signed on, would the United States support its staunch Middle East ally in this endeavor?

Question 2: China has complained that the U.S. "Asia pivot" is really a containment policy. Contrast and compare this with the situation of the Arab states surrounding Israel.

Question 3: What can and should the U.S. do to support political reform in China such that the PRC adopts many of the same institutions as, say, Israel?

Question 4: (Hypothetical) If the President of China called you at 3:00am to inform you of an imminent conflict with Japan, would you immediately call Israel to give their leader Bibi Netanyahu the news or would you conference him in on the call?

Question 5: (Hypothetical) You are in a lifeboat out at sea with only four seats, all of which are full. You happen across Bibi treading water and in need of help. Who do you kick out of the lifeboat to save Bibi? Choices: the leaders of China, India or Russia.

Makes me proud to be an American Jew, I can tell you that. My chest is swelling with pride as I write this. Check that; could be bile. I'll get back to you on that.


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The Daily Twit – 10/22/12: Had Enough U.S.-China News Yet?

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 05:38 PM PDT

I had an Intertube emergency last night, so this is coming out about 12 hours later than usual. Just as well. After an extremely long day/night, I was so tired after finally getting home that I would have been an easy choice for an extra on The Walking Dead. I took my Net outage as fate's way of telling me to go to sleep early. It's important to pick up on the few little signals life throws our way now and again.

So anyway, that means that I'm writing this just a short time before the last U.S. presidential debate, which is about foreign policy. Everyone expects that Obamney will be engaging in some serious China bashing, so I figure I'll be putting together a post on the subject later today once I get ahold of the transcript. You don't want me to actually watch those losers live, do you? That would be cruel and unusual punishment.

Then again, I'm not so sure there is anything either of them have to say that will warrant commentary, since they've covered China bashing fairly well during the campaign thus far. I guess we'll have to wait and see what hijinks ensue. Aren't you excited? Nauseated? Bored? It will all be over in a couple weeks.

Let me start off with some U.S.-China news, then we'll move on to other flotsam and jetsam from yesterday:

NPR: Five Debate-Worthy Facts About China — Decent introduction to some of the top issues, mostly for folks who don't usually pay attention to this stuff. Certainly not appropriate for my high-end readership!

Fox News: Obama, Romney talk tough on China — but could it hurt the US economy? — Yeah, I linked to something from Fox. You got a problem with that? The article throws out some U.S.-China trade stories, reminding everyone what it means when we say that these two economies are intertwined.

China Daily: Investment from China in US reaches record high — Despite all the campaign rhetoric, business still goes on. That's somehow comforting, I think. Interesting, though, that at the same time we see these numbers, the flip side isn't so encouraging: China Daily: FDI drops 'due to rising costs'.

New York Times: Obama Could Be Buoyed by Latest W.T.O. Victory Over China — Could the recent victory in the steel anti-dumping case help Obama in the election? Uh, I rather doubt it. Yes, some of the union folks who instigated the dispute in the first place are happy, but I assume they are already working on Obama's behalf in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Will this make a difference to your average voter, who doesn't exactly pay attention to WTO disputes? Not likely.

Business Insider: Once Again, The US Has Become China's #1 Export Market — Not a headline anyone in Washington or Beijing wants to see. So much for that whole decoupling thing.

Economist: Currency manipulation - The plan worked — If you agree that the value of the RMB is not really much of a problem anymore, what does this say about U.S. strategy in this area? That's a discussion worth having.

Forbes: Hawker Beechcraft's failed sale latest victim — More problems with Chinese inward investment and national security concerns. Have you noticed a trend yet? I'm not so sure this sort of thing will end with the election.

OK, a few additional items for you to read as you watch the presidential debate. Because, you know, it'll be really boring.

The Diplomat: Tensions in the East China Sea: Here To Stay — Just in case you thought this issue had gone away. Guess again. If that's too depressing, stay with the same publication and try this one: Sorry World: What Happens in Beijing, WON'T Stay in Beijing, a discussion of how China's domestic problems will effect it's foreign policy.

Associated Press: China's new leaders facing tough economic choices — Speaking of domestic policy, here's a look at the near-term situation on the eve of leadership change. Not exactly happy news.

Seeking Alpha: China's Slowdown: Why The Analysts Keep Getting It Wrong — And we can't avoid some econ commentary either, like this one whose thesis seems to be that China's slowdown is the result of/will be worse because of China's reliance on the State. Not exactly a revelation there, chief.

BBC: What kind of superpower could China be? — I missed this Martin Jacques column from over the weekend. Jacques sees a future China as powerful, but not as aggressive as one might think, a superpower throwing its weight around economically and culturally as opposed to militarily. He doesn't really account for China's military buildup, but other than that, a good read.

Forbes: Go Public, Take Private, Make A Deal: The Big Debate in China — The problem with Chinese listed companies in the U.S. and what it means for exit strategies. This is indeed a big debate in some circles, with a great deal of hand wringing by many in the VC/PE/China startup crowd.

Guardian: Chinese protesters clash with police over power plant — Yet another enviromental NIMBY protest in China? Yeah, you heard me. This one's down in the tropical paradise of Hainan, and it involves the construction of a coal-fired power plant. Considering that China opens one of these things every picosecond, NIMBY protests are a potential problem. We'll keep our eyes on this one.


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