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Photo: Taxi Driver, by Mark Hobbs

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 10:03 PM PDT

Ai Wei Wei, The Dangerous

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 08:26 PM PDT

Mark Stevens profiles Ai Wei Wei for Smithsonian Magazine's September issue, and asks whether the dissident artist "is more than just a contemporary phenom":

So what is it about Ai? What makes him, in Western eyes, the world's "most powerful artist"? The answer lies in the West itself. Now obsessed with China, the West would surely invent Ai if he didn't already exist. China may after all become the most powerful nation in the world. It must therefore have an artist of comparable consequence to hold up a mirror both to China's failings and its potential. Ai (his name is pronounced eye way-way) is perfect for the part. Having spent his formative years as an artist in New York in the 1980s, when Warhol was a god and conceptual and performance art were dominant, he knows how to combine his life and art into a daring and politically charged performance that helps define how we see modern China. He'll use any medium or genre—sculpture, ready-mades, photography, performance, architecture, tweets and blogs—to deliver his pungent message.

Ai's persona—which, as with Warhol's, is inseparable from his art—draws power from the contradictory roles that artists perform in modern culture. The loftiest are those of martyr, preacher and conscience. Not only has Ai been harassed and jailed, he has also continually called the Chinese regime to account; he has made a list, for example, that includes the name of each of the more than 5,000 schoolchildren who died during the Sichuan earthquake of 2008 because of shoddy schoolhouse construction. At the same time, he plays a decidedly unsaintly, Dada-inspired role—the bad boy provocateur who outrages stuffed shirts everywhere. (In one of his best-known photographs, he gives the White House the finger.) Not least, he is a kind of visionary showman. He cultivates the press, arouses comment and creates spectacles. His signature work, Sunflower Seeds—a work of hallucinatory intensity that was a sensation at the Tate Modern in London in 2010—consists of 100 million pieces of porcelain, each painted by one of 1,600 Chinese craftsmen to resemble a sunflower seed. As Andy would say, in high deadpan, "Wow."

Ai's work will be on display at Washington D.C.'s Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden from early October through February 2013, his second show in the American capital this year. See also reviews in The New York Times and The Guardian of Ai Wei Wei: Never Sorry, the documentary film by Alison Klayman that premiered in late July.


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Child Protesters Reap Success For Migrant Workers

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 06:37 PM PDT

Children of migrant laborers who had long been owed wages from a tourism company in Dali, Yunnan province joined their parents in protest this week. The company received a court order to to pay up months ago, but refused to do so. 's presence on the picket lines seems to have drawn enough public attention to force compensation. China Daily reports on this migrant success story from the southwest of China:

Shizhaizi Co, Ltd (XHS) remitted more than 14 million yuan ($2.2 million) as an overdue payment for a real estate project, including over 8 million yuan in overdue wages for 500 , to the intermediate people's court in the prefecture of Dali.

Ma Zhonghua, mayor of the city of Dali, where the prefectural seat is located, said the government will ensure that relevant contractors and subcontractors pay their workers in full and on time.

The case drew public attention after 13 of the workers' children, ranging from 5 years of age to 20, jointed their parents in protesting the company's failure to pay last Tuesday. Photos of the taken by tourists were posted online, triggering calls for the protection of migrants' rights.

[...]After the children joined their parents' , the Dali city government demanded that XHS settle the issue.

Wall Street Journal's China Realtime Report translates a message from one little girl's sign, and describes how the sentimentality that the children brought to the rally affected netizens:

"My name is Gao Jia," read the sign held by one little girl. "I want to eat, to go to school, to drink milk, to eat cookies."

[...]The appearance of the children appears to struck a chord with China's sometimes jaded Internet users, prompting new interest in an issue that had fallen out of the headlines in recent years.

[...]While conflicts over unpaid wages have become routine, the children's protest hovered near the top of Chinese search engine 's trending topics list throughout the day on Friday and garnered widespread sympathy from Internet users.

"While [a lot of us] are living cotent and happy lives, there are millions out there with no food to eat, no milk to drink," wrote one user of Sina Corp.'s microblogging service .

Not everyone was thrilled with the use of children, including a disapproving microblogger who asked: "What kind of parent lets their five year-old demand their unpaid wages?"

Two photos of the picketing tots can be seen in Chinese language coverage of the protest.

For more on the struggle of China's migrant workers, see prior CDT coverage. Also see "The Uncertain Future of Beijing's Migrant Schools" and "Migration Pattern's Change, Children Still Left Behind" for more on how the lifestyles of migrant laborers affect their successors.


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Report Shows Foxconn Conditions Improving

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 03:56 PM PDT

In March, Taiwanese electronics manufacturing contractor Foxconn pledged to make serious improvements to working conditions in their mainland Chinese factories after the Fair Labor Association launched an investigation into the company. The investigation was hired by client Inc., after the American company garnered negative press and pressure from civil society groups to address recurring Foxconn employee suicides and a 2011 explosion that killed 2 employees and injured many more. Yesterday, the Fair Labor Association released a status report, and The Unofficial Apple Weblog summarizes its findings:

[...]The FLA issued a report yesterday showing significant progress towards creating a better working environment for Foxconn employees.

Apple joined the FLA in January of 2012 after reports of hostile working conditions and worker suicides at Foxconn plants. The findings published in the FLA report show that all 195 actions that were due during April and May were completed. Foxconn also completed 89 action items ahead of their deadlines, with 76 items remaining on the list of actions to be completed over the next year.

Probably the best news was that Foxconn has made significant progress towards bringing its factories into compliance with Chinese legal limits on working hours, reducing hours to under 60 per week (with ). The goal? To reach full compliance of the legal limit of 40 hours per week plus an average of 9 hours of , while making sure that workers are still compensated fairly.

The New York Times reports on challenges to reducing overtime, due to both an employee desire to stockpile hours, and to Foxconn logistics:

Foxconn said Wednesday it would continue to cut overtime to less than 9 hours a week from the current 20, even though that could raise labor costs while also making it difficult to attract workers, who often seek jobs with overtime so they can maximize their pay.

"It is a challenge," said Louis Woo, special assistant to Foxconn's chief executive. "When we reduce overtime, it means we need to hire more people and implement more automation, more investment on robotic engineering. More workers also mean more dormitories and recreational facilities. It takes time."

[...]Many people would leave Foxconn if there was no overtime, according to a post by "Shenzhen MarS" on , a microblogging site.

Reuters interviewed Foxconn employees, and relays mixed opinions on overtime reduction:

At Foxconn's massive factory in Shenzhen's Longhua district, six workers interviewed by Reuters said overtime hours had been cut to between 48 to 60 hours per month, down from some 80 before.

Some said more workers were quitting Foxconn to seek better paid work elsewhere, with red posters plastered on walls everywhere calling for large-scale recruitment of replacements. Staff were getting text messages offering bonuses for referring friends or relatives to the factory.

"A lot of my friends have resigned," said a production line worker surnamed Li. "…From just my home town alone, there have been at least ten people who have left. On a basic level, most workers were able to withstand (the pressures) of the previous overtime system."

But not everyone was unhappy.

"There's been an improvement in the past six months… It's a bit more comfortable with shorter work days," said spiky-haired worker Liu Xiaoguan. But his take-home pay has dropped from around 3,700 yuan per month to 3,000 yuan.

The Reuters article also notes that Apple's longtime relationship with the Fair Labor Association has led some to distrust the investigation, a fact noted by Wired during the investigation's beginnings. In July, China Labor Watch released an investigative report alleging labor rights violations elsewhere in Apple's supply chain.

Earlier this year, Foxconn indirectly sparked a scandalizing controversy turned epistemic debate, when This American Life broadcast an excerpt from Mike Daisey's one-man show about undercover visits to Foxconn factories in China. This American Life retracted their piece after "substantial fabrications" were revealed in Daisey's tale.

For more on labor conditions, workers' rights, Foxconn and Apple, see prior CDT coverage.


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Netizen Voices: Power Cut at Indie Film Fest

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 02:59 PM PDT

It was a mere 30 minutes into the opening screening of the 9th annual Beijing Film Festival when the power cut off. Last year's festival was also shut down by local authorities. Forced into private venues, prominent festival-goers vented their anger on :

JiaZhangke: Indeed, films need electricity. I heard that the Bureau of Cinema is merging with the Electric Power Supply Bureau. Okay, I'll go ahead and learn shadow puppetry tomorrow. They won't send in the fire brigade, right?

贾樟柯 : 电影的确是需要电的,传说电影局要和供电局合并办公了,行,哥明天就去学皮影,不会派消防队来吧?

CuiWeiping: Today the Beijing Festival in Songzhuang was forcibly shut down. Independent film is a cinematic tradition. absorbs so much from it, transforming it into a force of self-renewal. But in China, "independence" has become a "natural pest," no matter what the "independent" thing is.

北京崔卫平:今天宋庄北京独立影像展开幕放映电影,遭遇拉闸。独立电影本是电影的一个传统,好莱坞大量吸收独立电影,将其转化成自身创造力。但是在中国,"独立"变成了一个"天然害虫",也不管什么独立。

BeijingYellowStallHaoJian: Yesterday's 9th was a dismal affair. There were several comrades from the "" on guard, and the courtyard doors were shut before the opening ceremony. People were only allowed to leave, not to enter. The electricity stopped 30 minutes into Egg and Stone. (The poor director, , had left her kid to her husband and waited there for 6, 7 hours.) From 8 p.m., people enjoyed a courtyard screening without electricity or films. The candle-lit cocktail party was pretty bougie. I bought a few big candles.

北京黄亭子郝建 : 昨天第九届北京独立影像展很悲催,门口二十多"有关部门"的同志哥护卫,开幕式没开始院子大门就被关,只许出不许进。放《鸡蛋与石头》大约30分钟被停电(可怜导演黄骥把孩子托给老公,守候6、7小时)。到夜间8点,大家在院子里享受没电、没影的影像展。烛光酒会倒是小资了一下,我买几个大蜡烛。

SobbingCrow: The opening ceremony of 9th Beijing Independent Film Festival had its electricity supply cut by the relevant organs. This event enlightens us to the fact that independent film festivals need independent generators.

恸哭的乌鸦:昨天在北京宋庄,第九届北京独立影像展开幕式被有关部门断电。这件事情带给我们的启示:搞独立影展,要备独立发电机~

adtonny: The electricity was cut off at the Beijing Independent Film Festival. This establishes a strong foundation for an Unplugged Film Festival.

adtonny:宋庄北京独立影像展竟被强行拉电闸,这为发展不插电电影节奠定了坚实基础。

WangRan: How can a country like this win the respect of others?

王冉: 这样的国家,凭什么赢得世界的尊重?

sLanBenbens: The title irks the Communist Party. At the very least it should be called the "Harmonious" Film Festival.

s蓝笨笨s:名字太扎tg的眼,起码应该叫"和谐"电影节

Qiyueqi: I salute all the warriors who believe in tomorrow! // @cinemaChengQingsong: We're unable to move an inch. // @LiYu: In the harmonious era, we are unable to move an inch. /// @cinemaChengqingsong: The darkness before the dawn. // @BeijingCuiWeiping: BeijingCuiWeiping: Today the Beijing Independent Film Festival in was forcibly shut down.

柒月琦:向所有相信明天的战士致敬!//@电影人程青松: 寸步难行。//@李玉:和平时代,我们寸步难行 ///@电影人程青松:黎明之前的黑暗。 //@北京崔卫平: 今天宋庄北京独立影像展开幕放映电影,遭遇拉闸。

Via CDT Chinese. Translation by Wendy Qian.

"" is an original CDT series. If you would like to reuse this content, please follow the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 agreement.


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Ministry of Truth: Anti-Japanese Protests

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 02:06 PM PDT

The following example of instructions, issued to the media and/or Internet companies by various central (and sometimes local) government authorities, has been leaked and distributed online. Chinese journalists and bloggers often refer to those instructions as "." CDT has collected the selections we translate here from a variety of sources and has checked them against official Chinese media reports to confirm their implementation.

Propaganda Department of the Communist Party of China: Do not comment on the Japanese landing on the Diaoyu Islands. Play down the anti-Japanese demonstrations that have happened in certain cities over the last few days. All media must without exception use wire copy. Do not publish photos of vandalism during the . (August 21, 2012)

中宣部:日方登上钓鱼岛的事不评论。对于一些城市近日的反日示威要淡化处理,媒体一律采用新华社通稿,示威中出现的打砸照片不要刊登。


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Advice for Gu Kailai: Lose Weight to Leave Jail

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 01:24 PM PDT

are going crazy over the telling placement of headlines in yesterday's edition of the paper 6 AM Today (今晨6点). At top is a photo of at her trial and the headline "Bogu Kailai's Commuted Death Sentence." (Chinese media refer to her using by combining her married and maiden names.) Below the fold, a mouse peers out from a beer can. Unable to squeeze itself out, the headline reads, "Go on a Diet, Then Come on Out."

The weight Gu Kailai put on between her arrest and trial has many guessing at the conditions of her detention, or whether she even had a body double take the heat for her. There's little hope for true justice, either. A commuted death sentence can easily become a life sentence; Gu may even leave prison in some years' time.

 

 

Bogu Kailai's Commuted Death Sentence

Bogu Kailai: "I feel that the sentence is fair, and that it reflects the court's sincere respect for the law, sincere respect for reality, and sincere respect for life."

 

A little mouse's thirst for booze led it into a beer can. It made it in, but no matter what it can't get out.

Go on a Diet, Then Come on Out 

 

 

 

 

Read more about Gu Kailai and her husband, , from CDT.

Via Over the Wall. Translation by Josh Rudolph.


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Word of the Week: Great, glorious and correct

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 12:00 PM PDT

Editor's Note: The comes from China Digital Space's , a glossary of terms created by Chinese and frequently encountered in online political discussions. These are the words of China's online "resistance discourse," used to mock and subvert the official language around and political correctness.  If you are interested in participating in this project by submitting and/or translating terms, please contact the CDT editors at CDT [at] chinadigitaltimes [dot] net.

伟光正 (wěi guāng zhèng): great, glorious and correct

A Western cartoon from the 1960s picked up by a contemporary netizen is captioned, "After the famine, the Party continues to be 'great, glorious and correct'" (大饥荒后,中共继续"伟光正").

The Chinese Communist Party has described itself as "great, glorious and correct" (伟大光荣正确 wěidà guāngróng zhèngquè) for over 40 years. A 2001 People's Daily editorial is titled (with characteristic lack of irony) "The Communist Party of China is historically proved great, glorious and correct." Recently, however, netizens have turned this term on its head and used it to sarcastically refer to the Party's stubborn insistence that it is always in the right.

Netizens use the phrase in a number of ways:

1. As an adjective. Example: "When the country remains underdeveloped it is because the quality of the citizens is too low and domestic conditions are too complicated. When the country develops it is completely because they are great, glorious and correct" ( 国家发展不起来,是因为国民素质太低,国情太复杂。国家发展起来,全是因为他们伟光正了).

2. As a reference to the Party. "Great, glorious and correct cadres" (伟光正的干部).

3. As a personal name. Wei guang zheng sounds like someone's name. A fake Baidu Dictionary entry on Comrade Wei Guangzheng (Chinese) describes a man who always thinks he is right, even though he clearly is not.

Political cartoonist has illustrated the grass-mud horse use of "great, glorious and correct" in his Hexie Farm series for CDT: see "Mirror, Mirror on the Wall," "The Dragon Boat" and "The Loudspeaker."


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The Daily Twit – 8/22/12: The End of iGuilt, Pollution Tax, and a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 06:48 AM PDT

The subject of labor rights was on my mind today. The latest report from the Fair Labor Association came out on Foxconn. My post, Foxconn Labor Standards Progress Report, summarizes the results and has links to the report. You can also check out this story in the Guardian: Apple manufacturer Foxconn improves on Chinese workers' hours and safety.

If you're looking for more information on the successful labor protests by Motorola Mobility workers, there are some good details in Caixin: Google's Motorola layoffs spark protests in China.

In other news:

Bloomberg: China Pollution Tax Plan Submitted to Cabinet — OK, yes, I shudder to think about the implementation and enforcement of this if it passes, but aside from that, it's a step in the right direction, eh?

China Daily: CBRC sets up protection bureau — Somehow I think this was easier for China to set up than the analog in the U.S., which was a clusterfuck. Luckily for us here in China, the financial services industry doesn't own the government, at least not yet.

Global Times: Foreign correspondents not targeted — Not as bad as it sounds. The issue is whether the recent violence against journalists comes from local guys or the higher ups.

Xinhua: China to Formulate New Five-year Anti-corruption Plan — This is more of an announcement (and for me a placeholder) than an article, but it certainly makes me curious as to what the plan is going to look like. Talk about a huge challenge.

Financial Times: Thucydides's trap has been sprung in the Pacific — Another "China Rises" Op/Ed. I responded earlier today with this: The Rise of China: Been There, Already Read That.

Daniel Bell: Political Meritocracy Is a Good Thing (Part 1): The Case of China — Surprised this wasn't the subject of more chatter today. It's basically a "China Model" argument, the first in a series.

New York Times: Writing Chinese in a Digital World — Chinese characters and the challenges of technology. Always fun to read about.


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Foxconn Labor Standards Progress Report

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 05:49 AM PDT

God knows how many times we've talked about Foxconn, Apple and labor standards in China over the past couple of years. If you recall, when the shit finally hit the fan (and workers started hitting the pavement), Apple called in the labor rights organizations and invited inspections.

This was supposed to be an ongoing deal, and if you remember, the last time the Fair Labor Association came calling and wrote up a summary of what was going on at Foxconn, the expectation was that they would be back to see how Foxconn implemented their suggestions.

And here we go (from FLA's web site):

In February 2012, FLA assessed working conditions and the treatment of workers at three Chinese factories manufacturing Apple products, which are owned and operated by Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn) in Shenzhen and Chengdu.

On March 28, 2012, FLA published detailed reports on each of the three factories along with recommendations for improving conditions for workers, and a complete remediation plan prepared by Apple and Foxconn to address each issue identified during the FLA assessment. Each remedial action item included a description of the steps to be taken, the name of the unit within Foxconn responsible for implementation, and a timeline for completion.

The action plan stretches over a period of 15 months, from April 1, 2012, through July 1, 2013, with deadlines for many of the action items set in the first three months.

Read the original investigation report and action plan at http://www.fairlabor.org/report/foxconn-investigation-report. FLA-accredited assessors returned to the facilities from June 25 to July 6 2012 to verify the implementation status of remedial action items through June 30.

Read the report, along with detailed information on each of the action items, below.

The report contains a handy table for keeping score, but basically the news is pretty good. I don't think it's particularly useful to get bogged down in these numbers, which often can obfuscate problems, but for what it's worth, there were a total of 360 "remedial actions" between the three factories.

Of those, 195 were scheduled to be completed by May 31, and indeed, Foxconn has complied with all of them. Of a further 254 remedial actions that are scheduled to be completed between June 1 of this year and July 1 of next year, 89 have already been completed ahead of schedule.

That doesn't really tell us anything of course. The question is whether conditions have gotten better. Back to the report:

Many physical changes to improve worker health and safety have been made since the investigation, including the enforcement of ergonomic breaks, changing the design of workers' equipment to guard against repetitive stress injuries, updating of maintenance policies to ensure equipment is working properly, and testing of emergency protective equipment like eyewashes and sprinklers.

[ . . . ]

The company has reduced hours to 60 per week (including overtime) with the goal of reaching full compliance with the Chinese legal limit of 40 hours per week plus an average of 9 hours of overtime per week while protecting worker pay.

Now we're talking. Overtime is down, wages are up (a lot), worker safety has improved. This seems quite substantive, and the monitoring program will continue.

The question everyone is asking of course is "Can I stop feeling guilty about all my iCrap?"

I can't help you with that one, but I will say that if Foxconn actually comes into conformity with China labor laws, that will mean that conditions at their facilities will be much better than a hell of a lot of other factories here. That might have been true even before all this started, though.

The only other point I'd make here is to look at this, along with the recent successful protest by folks being laid off at Motorola Mobility, and say that the environment for labor rights challenges/protests in China sure has gotten better in the past few years.

You protest, you demonstrate, you have the backing of labor rights groups — there's a chance you might actually get somewhere. It helps when your employer is a large multinational that has to worry about its brand of course.

This is a win-win in the long run. Apple is, in some ways, now ahead of the curve on being responsive to labor issues. The labor rights groups also have to be happy with the entire process (I would assume). Finally, the workers have obviously benefited, at least until Foxconn starts yanking back all their overtime.


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China Announces Plan to Cut Energy Consumption

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 03:57 AM PDT

In a bid to strengthen China's energy security, the central government announced plans on Tuesday to spend nearly $400 billion to cut China's by 300 million tonnes of standard before 2015, via projects aimed at energy and reduction . From Reuters:

A report from China's , or cabinet, said the investments will take China almost halfway to meeting its target to cut the energy intensity 16 percent below 2010 levels by 2015.

The government has earmarked $155 billion of the money for projects that shrink energy use, and while the plan did not detail which types of projects or sectors would benefit from the funds, a big share of the cash is expected to go to industry.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in February set an overall 21 percent energy intensity reduction target for industry from 2010 to 2015.

The State Council plan said steel producers must reduce their energy use per unit of production by a quarter over the five years, coal-fired power plants by 8 percent and cement manufacturers by 3 percent.

Last week, The China Daily reported that China's had cut its energy usage by 2 percent last year.


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Photo: china_changsha, by adam coster

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 03:34 AM PDT

Chinese Cities Pledge to Boost Spending, but Will They?

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 03:29 AM PDT

The Wall Street Journal reports that a number of Chinese cities have rolled out large stimulus measures intended to boost slumping growth:

The city of in China's southwest called for of 1.5 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in seven key industries over the next three years, the state-run news agency reported Monday.

Separately, , a city next to , said it has "preliminarily" decided to move forward with a plan calling for investment of 1.5 trillion yuan over four years in 10 industrial sectors, ranging from the petroleum and chemical industry to the aviation and aerospace industry over the next four years, according to a report by the state-run Tianjin Daily posted on the Tianjin municipal government website on Tuesday.

The announcements follow a similar plan from , the capital of central China's Hunan province, which last month unveiled plans for 829.2 billion yuan in investments.

The plans signal a growing appetite in China for government spending to help boost slowing economic growth. In the second quarter, China's economy grew 7.6% from a year ago, the slowest rate since the global financial crisis, and more recent economic data suggest the slowdown will continue.

Despite the ambitious announcements, however, many analysts question whether Chongqing, Tianjin, and others will actually follow through on their proposed investments. From Reuters:

"You look at the size of some of these announcements and it is quite clear it is almost impossible they will all be brought to fruition," said Alistair Thornton, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

Many analysts suspect the Tianjin plan and the others may be no more than verbal intervention to boost market confidence.

"To a large extent, they are just plans, or more detailed plans to five-year plans," said Ting Lu, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, referring to five-year economic blue-prints that China uses to chart its growth path.

"It's not stimulus as defined by Wall Street."

Indeed, many of the industries recently highlighted by local governments as areas of investment are those outlined in their five-year plans, making it hard to tell if recent investment pledges are indeed new.

And even if local governments were to attempt to bring-forward spending to lift economic growth, they will need approval from Beijing, as it controls the reins of bank lending and has the last say on any big project, said Lu.

Earlier this month, The Financial Times highlighted Changha's spending plan:

Officials have not formally called it an economic stimulus, but their rush to ramp up investment is being seen by analysts as an archetype of China's response to its stuttering economy. Instead of the mammoth stimulus programme led by the central government when the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, local governments are this time taking charge, trying to accelerate spending and rally banks and investors to hop on the bandwagon.

That the government of Changsha, a city of 7m, needs to prop up its economy at all might strike outside observers as bizarre. The city's gross domestic product increased 12.9 per cent in the first half of this year, about two-thirds faster than the national growth rate. But the pace of growth was down from its 15.2 per cent average of the past five years. The drop to low double-digit growth has been sudden and unwelcome.

"Changsha has been among the fastest growing of the cities in central China, but it's still small on a per capita basis and we want to catch up with the coastal areas. It's like when you give a skinny man a nice meal. He still wants to eat more," says Liu Fei, president of Hunan Fuli Investment Consultancy.


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The Rise of China: Been There, Already Read That

Posted: 22 Aug 2012 02:14 AM PDT

I spent a summer at a think tank in Washington, D.C. a number of years ago as a grad school intern, and one of the things I learned about those places, and their brethren in academic institutions, is the "scoring" system when it comes to fundraising. If you get money from a donor, you have to explain at the end of the year where that money was spent and what was accomplished. Trying to secure additional funding? Same deal.

How to keep score? Lots of ways, but most of them involve public exposure, like conference presentations, papers published, interviews on television and, last but certainly not least, Op/Ed articles in major publications. Got something in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal or the like, that's a big fat gold star.

Of course we run into a quantity versus quality issue. Always a problem. Consider for example how many crappy posts I write (most of them?), which I believe to some extent is a function of the frequency. If I wrote a monthly column instead, I would probably take great pains to make sure it was well written and substantive. Such is life for the blogger.

Back to the "PR or die" problem. What's the result? A great number of Op/Eds written by think tankers and academics whose sole purpose is to get their name out there. Nothing wrong with that, of course, unless you just phone in the effort instead of write something worthwhile. The ultimate blame for all of this, of course, rests with the lazy editors who don't bother to notice that what they're publishing leaves a lot to be desired.

All of this popped into my head after I read an Op/Ed in the Financial Times by a noted academic (I assume) at Harvard, Graham Allison. The article, "Thucydides's trap has been sprung in the Pacific," is well written by someone who clearly knows his history.

I was first put off by the headline, although I'm sure that isn't Allison's fault. Some editor somewhere at the FT apparently thought that something dramatic was called for. After reading that headline, "Thucydides' Trap" sounds like one country lying in wait for another or something. While the U.S. is concerned with, and distracted by, the South China Sea equivalent of Scylla or Charybdis, China is patiently waiting nearby, ready to leap out at the unsuspecting Americans. Lovely image.

But that's a minor irritant. More important is Allison's thesis, which I think can be summed up with this quote:

The defining question about global order in the decades ahead will be: can China and the US escape Thucydides's trap? The historian's metaphor reminds us of the dangers two parties face when a rising power rivals a ruling power – as Athens did in 5th century BC and Germany did at the end of the 19th century. Most such challenges have ended in war. Peaceful cases required huge adjustments in the attitudes and actions of the governments and the societies of both countries involved.

I don't think anyone can disagree with any of that. Everyone knows that the US-China bilateral relationship is key to global stability. Moreover, as even the average ignorant American knows that China's economy that made great leaps and bounds over the past few decades, the issue of China as a rising power is well known.

This is all so obvious that I really wonder why this Op/Ed was written at all. Certainly there's nothing timely about it, aside from a throwaway line in the first paragraph about the South China Sea conflict. But seriously, it's not that difficult to find a current dispute on which to hang this sort of Op/Ed. Over the past few years alone, one could have used the Beijing Olympics, the RMB debate, environmental policy, any number of trade fights — need I go on?

At first glance, this Op/Ed looks pretty cool and caters to history groupies like myself who have fond memories of studying Ancient Greece or the rise of Bismarck's Germany. Throw in enough of those references, and everyone assumes you're making a deep, intellectual argument.

But I can't find one here. This is the whole thing, folks:

1. China is rising.

2. The U.S. is debating how to respond.

3. In the past, this sort of thing has led to war.

4. The U.S. and China (in particular the former) should learn from history and avoid war.

Again, all extremely valid points based on excellent scholarship, but honestly, someone writes the exact same thing every 2.7 days, on average (well, it seems like it anyway).

I wouldn't be so cranky about all this if Allison at least included some policy suggestions in his conclusions. While there are hundreds of similar pieces out there on "China Rising," almost none of them actually provide specific advice on the preferred U.S. response. Unfortunately, after talking about the potential catastrophe that could result if attitudes do not change, Allison wraps it up with this:

In light of the risks of such an outcome, leaders in both China and the US must begin talking to each other much more candidly about likely confrontations and flash points. Even more difficult and painful, both must begin making substantial adjustments to accommodate the irreducible requirements of the other.

Really, that's it? All we're left with is: 1) The two countries should communicate better; and 2) Adjustments need to be made.

OK, yes, hard to disagree. I'm on board with both of those prescriptions, as I suspect is every other person on the planet. Hell, if you asked the residents of Hoboken, New Jersey if the U.S. and China should work on communication, I think most of them would say yes.

And about those "adjustments." Even a tiny little hint about what those should be, aside from the reference to China "demanding more say" would have been useful. Everyone and their grandmother has already made the greater point about the U.S. and a rising China. The hard part is formulating actual policy. Sadly, Allison leaves us hanging at the end.

[Editorial note: Just for the record, I am not trying to cast any aspersions on Allison, whose Op/Ed is fine, if not exactly new. On the other hand, I'm not at all sure how the Financial Times thought such an article would educate its readers. I guess if you put the word "Thucydides" in the title, that's sufficient these days for most editors in terms of intellectualism.]


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